2022 - Round 7 : Overs/Unders
/HIgh levels of agreement again this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers, with the average absolute difference in Totals around 4 to 5 points per game.
Read More2022 - Round 7 : The Lull
/The TAB Bookmaker has another broad range of expected margins this week, with a low of 2.5 points and a high of 29.5 points.
All but two of the contests have expected margins under three goals, which has resulted in an all-game average of 14.6 points per game, the lowest this season since Round 3, and the third-lowest for a Round 7 in the history that I have.
Only two games are expected to be won by more than 17 points: Melbourne over Hawthorn, and Carlton over North Melbourne.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Eight teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS, which left them still agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Read More2022 - Round 6 Results - Gathering MoSMentum
/Eight favourites won this week, and each of the Top 5 Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, which meant there was no movement at all in that part of that Leaderboard.
The all-Tipster average was 7.1 from 9, dragged down by Home Sweet Home’s paltry score of 2. It is now 9 tips behind the leaders in MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg.
Read More2022 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE 2:45PM MONDAY
Pies by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay.
UPDATE 3:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has it as Brisbane Lions by 17 points.
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
Port by 35 points, according to MoSHPlay.
UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends up at Dogs by 18 points, which is the lowest forecasted margin of any of the MoS Margin Predictors.
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the nine games in Round 6, making some assumptions about the likely final 23s for each team. MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in only one game.
2022 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS twins are, on average, seeing totals fairly similar to those that the bookmakers are seeing, with differences no larger than about 9 points for any single game.
Read More2022 - Round 6 : A Few Eggs; One Basket
/The TAB Bookmaker has quite the range of expected margins this week, with a low of 1.5 points and a high of 28.5 points.
That’s resulted in an all-game average of 15.6 points per game, which is the second-highest of the season.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/Ten teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 14 on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Read More2022 - Round 5 Results - No Regress
/With the exception of MoSHPlay_Marg on head-to-head tipping (the form of tipping where genuine talent is least likely to prevail), the MoS trio continue to rank highly on the Tipster Dashboard.
Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was MoSSBODS_Marg’s eight from nine, which saw it join MoSHBODS_Marg in first place on the Leaderboard with 31 from 45 (69%), two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins. The all-Tipster average was 6.8 from 9, despite the fact that only 6 favourites won.
Read More2022 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE MONDAY 2:30PM
MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 17 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM
It’s Essendon by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay.
UPDATE SUNDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points.
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay moves to Saints by 24 points..
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 11 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
It’s looking like a very restrained MoSHPlay week, with so far only a single most-extreme prediction, and that by just 3 points.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 8:45PM
MoSHPlay is very much in keeping with the mainstream crowd in forecasting a Lions win by 28 points
2022 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS twins are seeing lower totals than are the bookmakers for all but a couple of games, which has left their all-game average about 4 to 5 points under the bookmakers’.
Read More2022 - Round 5 : Pause and Reflect
/The TAB Bookmaker sees Round 5 as delivering nine games with an average victory margin of almost 17 points per game, his highest pre-round average this season.
Six games, however, are expected to be won by less than 20 points, with the Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne v GWS games those that are driving up the average.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 4
/There was a lot more stability on MoSSBODS this week, but still a fair bit of turbulence on MoSHBODS, as the former re-ranked just nine teams and only two by more than a single spot, and the latter re-ranked 14 teams and six by more than a single spot.
Read More2022 - Round 4 Results - Still Bubbling Along Nicely
/Winners and margins proved a little harder to forecast this week, but the MoS trio still returned mostly pleasing results relative to the bookmakers.
Read More2022 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE 3:45PM SUNDAY
And it’s Carlton by 3 points to end the round for MoSHPlay.
UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has switched to Hawks by 1 point..
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay is now Essendon by only 9 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
Just minor tweaks for the two upcoming games, which leaves MoSHPlay at Dogs by 17 and Dockers by 5.
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
Pies by 27 points. Final answer.
UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY
It’s the Swans by 39 points, according to MoSHPlay..
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay is now, essentially, calling the Cats v Lions game a draw.
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay in the round’s other games at this point, although it is siding with the majority, and against its siblings, in the Suns v Blues game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 18 points.
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s opening bid on the Thursday game is Melbourne by 21 points.
2022 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders
/On average, the MoS twins are seeing lower totals this week than are the bookmakers, but there is quite some variability on a game-to-game basis.
Read More2022 - Round 4: Oops
/The original blog for Round 4 was accidentally overwritten, so I’ve here reposted the key images.
2022 - Team Ratings After Round 3
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS re-ranked the vast majority of teams this week, though both left Melbourne in top spot.
The shuffling just below Melbourne resulted in an identical set of teams in positions 2nd through 5th: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
Read More2022 - Round 3 Results - Couldn't Ask For More (or less, depending on the metric)
/For the first time since I started trying to include player information in my forecasts, it seems this year is the one where it’s proven most useful in predicting margins and results, but not to the extent where it’s rendered useless the wagering abilities of the player-agnostic models.
Read More2022 - Round 3 Update
/The long-awaited markets for the West Coast v Fremantle game are now up, which allows us, firstly, to complete the round’s forecasting.
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