2022 - Round 5 : Pause and Reflect

/

The TAB Bookmaker sees Round 5 as delivering nine games with an average victory margin of almost 17 points per game, his highest pre-round average this season.

Six games, however, are expected to be won by less than 20 points, with the Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne v GWS games those that are driving up the average.

Once again, as the table at right illustrates, a 16.9 points per game average is somewhat low for a Round 5 in historical terms, and is especially low compared to the 22.1 points average we saw in 2021.

So, what do the MoS models make of it all?

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s far less contrarianism about this week, most of it coming from Home Sweet Home, and a little from the MoS twins, Consult The Ladder, and the RSMP twins. From a game-by-game perspective, the majority of underdog support has come in the Adelaide v Richmond and Essendon v Fremantle matches.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in only four games, including a 19-point range in the North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, and a 17-point range in the Adelaide v Richmond game, in the former thanks to Bookie_3 and RSMP_Weighted and, in the latter, thanks to Bookie_3 and MoSSBODS_Marg.

Bookie_9 has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 in four games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are just two games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, with the largest 18% points in the Adelaide v Richmond game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in eight games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four games.

WAGERS

It’s a much quieter week this week, with just three head-to-head and two line bets spanning three teams. Combined the head-to-head wagers total almost 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, largely because of an 8% wager on the Dees, and the line wagers total just under 5% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Individually, the line bets range in size from 2.2% to 2.7% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.5% to 8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just under 5c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 6c.

Melbourne easily carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Melbourne win by over 4 goals and a Melbourne loss representing just under a 6c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Adelaide representing a potential swing of just over 4c, and North Melbourne a swing of just under 1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.