2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5
/This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Geelong and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; 25% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions: 65-80% chances of being finalists; 30-45% chances of Top 4; 6% to 10% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Collingwood: 35-45% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Essendon: 20-25% chance of being finalists; 4-6% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn: 3% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne: <1.5% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier