2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R2
/This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Geelong: about 75-90% chance of being finalists; 40-65% chances of Top 4; 10-25% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood, GWS, Western Bulldogs: about 65-70% chances of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 7-8% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 40-55% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton, St Kilda, Fremantle: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 8-11% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <1 to 2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
West Coast: about 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier