2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 18
/This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.8% chances of Top 4; 94% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton and Geelong: 97% chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 45-50% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon: 65% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier
GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: 45-55% chances of being finalists; 5-10% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and Collingwood: 25-30% chance of being finalists; 2-4% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
Adelaide and St Kilda: slim chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or being Minor Premier
West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier