2025 : Simulating the Finals After R24.1
/FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS
MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals
Flag favouritism is then, currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):
Geelong (about $2.65)
Adelaide (about $5)
Collingwood (about $6.25)
Brisbane Lions (about $6.70)
Gold Coast (about $16.70)
We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.
Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.
The most common pairings are
Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 23% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 66% of those.
Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 18% of GFs, Geelong wins about 65%
Collingwood / Adelaide: about 13% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%
Geelong / Collingwood: about 12% of GFs, Geelong wins about 64%
Brisbane Lions / Adelaide: about 9% of GFs, Brisbane Lions wins just over half
Collingwood / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 54%
LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL
After last week’s results, which meant that the Suns entered the Finals at the expense of the Dogs, there was an increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.
The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-8 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another near 3-in-4 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.
That leaves about 1-in-8 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.