2022 - Team Ratings After Round 3
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS re-ranked the vast majority of teams this week, though both left Melbourne in top spot.
The shuffling just below Melbourne resulted in an identical set of teams in positions 2nd through 5th: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
Overall, 14 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 13 by MoSHBODS, six by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and six by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Fremantle was a big climber on both Systems, as was Brisbane Lions to a lesser extent, whilst Sydney fell multiple spots under both Systems.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9835.
To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after three rounds of their respective seasons.
We see that Melbourne is quite highly rated in historical terms, and that Brisbane Lions and Geelong are all rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Dees, Lions, and Cats, while on defence we find MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs, and Saints, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs, and Hawks.
On MoSSBODS, 4 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 2), and 8 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.724.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only eight teams this week, leaving the Top 6 and Bottom 3 unchanged.
It now has the same Top 3 of Melbourne, Brisbane Lions and Geelong as do the MoS twins.
Four teams moved by more than a single spot, which St Kilda, GWS, and Fremantle all up 2 spots, and Richmond down 2 spots.
Eight teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with five more Rated 995 or higher.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 44 Rating Points, which is up about seven Points compared to last week, but about the same as it was at the same time last season when Port Adelaide’s 1016.1 Rating topped the table, and North Melbourne’s 972.1 tailed it.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a number of teams, The largest of those differences are for Carlton, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and Essendon.
MARS, as ever, provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams.
MoSSBODS, though, in a rare showing of independence, has the most-extreme ranking for seven teams, while MoSHBODS has it for only two teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Fremantle (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, just ahead of Port Adelaide and Richmond (6 spots) while 11 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Geelong, North Melbourne, and Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
