Is Favourite-Longshot Bias Evident in Bookmaker Data for the AFL?
/More than once here on the MoS website we’ve looked at the topic of favourite-longshot bias (FLB), which asserts that bookmakers apply a higher profit margin to the prices of underdogs than they do to favourites. In one MoS piece (15 years ago!) I had more of a cursory look and found some evidence for FLB using 2006 to 2008 data, and, in another piece, a few years later I had a more detailed look and found only weak to moderate evidence using opening TAB data from 2006 to 2010.
At this point I think it’s fair to say that the jury is still out on FLB’s existence, and waiting for more convincing evidence either way (and very unhappy at having been sequestered for 13 years in the meantime).
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