AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 12

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In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 12 Results - The Smallest Possible Profit

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WoSHBODS tipped only one of the two winners in Week 2 of the Finals, although it had every reason to feel that it had both in the proverbial bag at three-quarter time in the Hawks v Power game.

It also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 9.8 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 74.5 from 105 (71%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.

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AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 11

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In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 1 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

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AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 10

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In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 10 and project the outcomes for the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 Results - A Small Giants Loss

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WoSHBODS tipped all nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 16.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 71 from 99 (71%) for accuracy, 19.5 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.

I genuinely could not be happier with those results, especially given how the men’s forecasts went this year.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 1:45PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Richmond v Hawthorn: 1% o75.5 @ $1.85

  • Port Adelaide v GWS: 2.3% o75.5 @ $1.87

  • Fremantle v Western Bulldogs: 6% u74.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 12:15PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • St Kilda v Brisbane: 2.2% o78.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Melbourne v Collingwood: 0.2% o69.5 @ $1.87

  • Sydney v West Coast: 2% o75.5 @ $1.87

  • North Melbourne v Gold Coast: 2.5% u84.5 @ $1.85

  • Carlton v Essendon: 1% u70.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 1:40PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Geelong v Adelaide: 1.1% o75.5 @ $1.87

AFLW 2024 - Round 10

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As we approach the final round of the home and away season, we look back on what I think is clearly WoSHBODS’ best season by some distance, especially in terms of its ability to predict margins. This week it is tipping five home teams and four away teams to win, all of them favourites, and with the following distribution:

  • Under 2 goals: 2 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 3 games

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AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 9

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In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 8 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:30AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Western Bulldogs v St Kilda: 3.0% u71.5 @ $1.85

  • Collingwood v Carlton: 1.0% o68.5 @ $1.85

  • Brisbane v Sydney: 0.5% o85.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v Richmond: 1.2% u64.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 11:15AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Gold Coast v Port Adelaide: 0.1% o76.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 4:15PM THURSDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v Melbourne: 2% o78.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 8

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In this blog we’ll record the results of our first attempt this season to project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then so the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

Read More

AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following:

  • Geelong v Brisbane: 1.2% o83.5 @ $1.87

  • Essendon v North Melbourne: 4.9% u77.5 @ $1.85

  • Collingwood v Adelaide: 1.5% u73.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 2:45PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following:

  • Melbourne v Richmond: 1.9% u72.5 @ $1.87

  • West Coast v Fremantle: 2.5% u71.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 11:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following:

  • Sydney v Gold Coast: 1.3% o77.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 11:15AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following:

  • Hawthorn v GWS: 3.2% o82.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 3:30PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following in tonight’s game (with what my Dad would’ve called a ‘just to have an interest’ bet):

  • Port Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.2% u68.5 @ $1.90

UPDATE 4:45PM THURSDAY

WoSHBODS has taken the following in tonight’s game:

  • Carlton v Western Bulldogs: 3.7% o60.5 @ $1.87