2022 - Round 3 Results - Couldn't Ask For More (or less, depending on the metric)

For the first time since I started trying to include player information in my forecasts, it seems this year is the one where it’s proven most useful in predicting margins and results, but not to the extent where it’s rendered useless the wagering abilities of the player-agnostic models.

Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters were MoSHBODS_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg, and Home Sweet Home, all of which bagged seven from nine. That wasn’t enough, however, to rundown Bookie Knows Best and RSMP_Simple, whose six from nine was enough to keep them a tip clear from the pack on 18 from 27 (67%).

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Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went to MoSSBODS_Marg with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.24 points per game, just marginally ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg on 21.26 points per game, which now tops the Leaderboard. Third was MoSHBODS_Marg on 22.23 points per game. Worst, surprisingly, was Bookie_Hcap, which now sits last on the Leaderboard.

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Log probability scores were all positive for the round, but more so for the MoS trio, so much so that MoSHPlay_Prob now heads the Leaderboard.

WAGERING

Though I’m fairly certain it’s happened before, I honestly can’t remember the last time Investors bagged 10 collects from 10 wagers. That is, though, this week’s result, which saw all three Funds finish in the black.

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The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 8.6c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 11c, that from a +46.8% ROT on a 0.235 turn. Inevitably. there will be rougher roads ahead, but we should enjoy this one for the moment.