2022 - Team Ratings After Round 6
/Eight teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS, which left them still agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Altogether, there were four multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, and three on MoSHBODS, with the Western Bulldogs the only team to fall multiple places on both Systems, and no team climbing multiple places on both..
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.979, as reflected in the chart below.
To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after five rounds of their respective seasons.
Melbourne remains quite highly rated in historical terms, and is still in the top decile of ultimate Grand Finalists. Geelong, also, remains the only other team rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Cats, Dees, and Lions, and MoSHBODS still with Dees, Lions, and Cats. On defence, we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Cats, and MoSHBODS now with Dees, Dockers, and Swans.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 8 are rated negatively on both (up 2), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 3). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.786.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, leaving the Top 4 and Bottom 2 unchanged.
MARS continues to agree with the MoS twins about Melbourne being the top-ranked side, but is also maintaining a much higher ranking for the Lions (2nd vs 5th), and a lower ranking for the Cats (4th vs 2nd)
Only one team (Adelaide) moved by more than a single spot, and none by more than two spots this week.
Just eight teams are now rated as better-than-average by MARS, and only two more Rated higher than 993.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 60 Rating Points, which is up about six Rating Points compared to last week, and about three Rating Points higher than it was at the same time last season when Port Adelaide’s 1021.6 Rating topped the table, and North Melbourne’s 964.6 tailed it.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a number of teams, the largest being for Adelaide and Carlton (and, to a lesser extent, Fremantle), where the teams’ ladder positions are well above their System Rankings, and Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide (and, to a lesser extent, Geelong), where the teams’ ladder positions are well below their System Rankings.
MARS, to a lesser extent again this week than is normal, provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 10 of the teams.
MoSSBODS, has the most-extreme ranking for nine teams, and MoSHBODS has it for three teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Richmond (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 10 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including North Melbourne, Melbourne, and West Coast, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
