2022 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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On average, the MoS twins are seeing lower totals this week than are the bookmakers, but there is quite some variability on a game-to-game basis.

That variability is highlighted when we look at the highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Geelong v Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Richmond v Western Bulldogs, and Essendon v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS & MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v St Kilda

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Fremantle v GWS

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: West Coast

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

MoSSBODS has Sydney as the only team expected to rack up three figures this week, an assessment with which the bookmakers agree.

WAGERS

Five wagers this week, four of them under, and another passed opportunity for an overs wager in a game expected to be rain-affected.

Estimated overlays range from about 2 to 16 points, with overlays of 6, 8 (twice), 12, and 16 points in the games where Investors have wagers.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 3 was a quiet but profitable one for Totals betting using MoSSBODS’ opinions, and saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and the TAB do the same for Away Team Scores and Game Totals..

That left MoSSBODS with the season-long best MAE for Game Totals, MoSHBODS with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and TAB with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS won its lone unders wagers with the TAB, moving it to a 5 and 0 record for the season.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded 5 from 9 results against both bookmakers, moving it to 16 from 27 (59%) for the season against both. MoSHBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 15 from 27 (56%) for the season against them, and a 2 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 13 from 27 (48%) for the season against them.