2022 - Round 5 Results - No Regress
/With the exception of MoSHPlay_Marg on head-to-head tipping (the form of tipping where genuine talent is least likely to prevail), the MoS trio continue to rank highly on the Tipster Dashboard.
Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was MoSSBODS_Marg’s eight from nine, which saw it join MoSHBODS_Marg in first place on the Leaderboard with 31 from 45 (69%), two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins. The all-Tipster average was 6.8 from 9, despite the fact that only 6 favourites won.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went, comfortably again, to MoSSBODS_Marg with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 24.7 points per game, ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg’s 27.9 points per game, and MoSHPlay_Marg’s 28.2 points per game.
MoSSBODS_Marg’s result was good enough to drag it to the top of the Leaderboard, ahead of the two other MoS models.
Log probability scores were all solidly positive for the round, but moreso for the MoS trio than for the three bookmaker-based Predictors. Those results left the ordering of the top 3 unchanged as MoSSBODS_Prob, MoSHBODS_Prob and then MoSHPlay_Prob.
WAGERING
It was another good week for Investors, with both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds returning profits, while the much-lower weighted Overs/Unders Fund returned a loss.
The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 3.8c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 21.5c, that from a +57.2% ROT on a 0.38 turn. The rubber band stretches ever tighter …
