2022 - Team Ratings After Round 4

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There was a lot more stability on MoSSBODS this week, but still a fair bit of turbulence on MoSHBODS, as the former re-ranked just nine teams and only two by more than a single spot, and the latter re-ranked 14 teams and six by more than a single spot.

Nonetheless, they both now have the same Top 6 teams: Melbourne, Geelong, Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Fremantle. They also have the same Bottom 3.

Hawthorn was the only multiple spot decliner on both Systems this week, down three places into 13th on MoSSBODS and into 10th on MoSHBODS. No team rose multiple spots on both Systems.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9757.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after four rounds of their respective seasons.

We see that Melbourne remains quite highly rated in historical terms, and in the top decile of ultimate Grand Finalists, and that Geelong is the only other team rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with Top 3s of Dees, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Dees, Lions, and Saints. On defence we find both with a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Cats.

On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.71.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 12 teams this week, despite leaving the Top 4 and Bottom 2 unchanged.

It now has the same Top 3 as the MoS twins, albeit with second and third swapped. It’s also been a lot kinder to Sydney that has the MoS twins.

Six teams moved by more than a single spot, with Fremantle up 4 spots, and St Kilda and Richmond up 2 spots each, and with Hawthorn down 4 spots, and Port Adelaide and Carlton down 2 spots each.

Eight teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with six more Rated 993 or higher.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 46 Rating Points, which is up about two Rating Points compared to last week, but about a Point less than it was at the same time last season when Port Adelaide’s 1016.1 Rating topped the table, and North Melbourne’s 968.7 tailed it.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a number of teams, the largest being for Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide (and, to a lesser extent, Carlton and Gold Coast)..

MARS, as is its normal fashion, provides the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for 13 of the teams.

MoSSBODS, again has the most-extreme ranking for seven teams, while MoSHBODS has it for five teams. There is still of lot of work for the sorting hat to do …

Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Richmond (8 spots) has the widest range of rankings, ahead of Sydney (5 spots) while 11 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including North Melbourne, and Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.