2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 18
/The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:
Geelong: assured of a Top 8 finish, virtually assured of a Top 4 finish, and 60-70% chances for the Minor Premiership
Melbourne: assured of a Top 8 finish, 80-85% chances for Top 4, and around 20% chances for the Minor Premiership
Brisbane Lions, Fremantle and Sydney: assured of a Top 8 finish, 55-75% chances for Top 4, and around 3-5% chances for the Minor Premiership
Collingwood: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 20-30% chances for Top 4, and longshots for the Minor Premiership
Carlton: 85-90% chance of playing Finals, around 15% chance of a Top 4 finish, and extreme longshots for the Minor Premiership
Richmond and Western Bulldogs: 35-45% chances of playing Finals and longshots for a Top 4 finish
St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: 10-20% chance of playing Finals
Essendon, Hawthorn, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks (with North Melbourne still favourites for the Spoon, and Essendon and Hawthorn still mathematical chances of playing Finals)