2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 7

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This week’s Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, just over 6% points, and 5% points. Those average percentage point changes are about the same as we saw last week.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.

Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 5.5 to 16.5, which has again grown a little in size from last week’s 6.5 to 16.3. We also see that only seven teams are expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%, and that six teams are estimated as having at least a roughly 8-in-10 shot at playing Finals, and about a 1-in-3 or better shot at finishing Top 4. Immediately below them, there is Carlton, who are estimated as about 3-in-5 chances of playing Finals, and then four teams with estimated Finals chances of between 1-in-3 and 4-in-9.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for Adelaide and West Coast (-1.0), while the biggest increase came for Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Richmond, and GWS (+0.8).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were only two double-digit changes in estimate, with Adelaide’s falling by about 19% points, and Richmond’s increasing by over 14% points.

Melbourne sit at just better than 1-in-2 chances for the Minor Premiership, ahead of Brisbane Lions at about 1-in-5 and Fremantle at about 1-in-7.

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:

  • A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (3.5 to 17.9 wins)

  • Six teams with roughly a 4-in-5 or greater estimated chance of playing Finals, and six teams with roughly a 2-in-5 or greater estimated chance of finishing Top 4

  • Melbourne as almost 3-in-5 chances for the Minor Premiership, Brisbane Lions as about 1-in-6 chances, and Fremantle as about 1-in-9 chances.

  • Similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here we now find that the two methodologies now assess most teams similarly in terms of the number of ladder positions they are effectively competing for, the exceptions being:

  • Sydney: 6.9 spots Standard vs 10.4 spots Heretical

  • Adelaide: 12.8 v 10.9

  • Fremantle: 9.9 v 8.5

  • Essendon: 7.7 v 6.5

  • Port Adelaide: 10.9 v 12.4

  • Richmond: 11.8 v 13.7

Both methods suggest that teams are, on average, effectively competing for about 9.5 to 10 different ladder positions. Ths Standard Methodology has most teams competing for between 10 and 13 positions, while the Heretical Methodology has it as between 10 and 14 positions.

They also have the average ladder position with effectively 9.5 to 10 teams likely to fill it, and with most ladder positions effectively expecting anywhere between 8 and 13 or 14 teams to be competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne, West Coast, and North Melbourne, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, and 16th through 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology

If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.

We find that 12 wins is now even more likely than 11 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th, and 14 wins also comfortably more likely than 13 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 4th.

This, of course, varies by team, and in the chart below we look at how likely it is that a given team plays Finals if it records a particular number of wins, and how likely that outcome is. In the first chart we use the results from the Standard Methodology, and in the second chart from the Heretical Methodology.

We see that most teams are less than 25% chances of playing Finals under either methodology with only 11 wins, and that most are 65 to 80% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins under the Standard Methodology, and 50 to 75% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins under the Heretical Methodology, which tends to allocate fewer wins to teams towards the bottom of the ladder.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the Standard simulations to again investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.

The simulations are now suggesting that there is still slightly less than an even-money chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and still a roughly 1-in-5 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.

There’s also an estimated 2-in-5 chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and about a 1-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.

IMPACT OF NEXT 5 GAMES ON TEAMS’ FINALS CHANCES

Finally, we’ll again investigate, this time using both the Standard (top chart) and the Heretical )bottom chart) methodology simulations, what each team’s estimated chances of playing Finals will be in five games’ time, depending on how many of those five games that team has won.

We see that most teams’ chances of playing Finals increase only if they win at least 3 of their next 5 games, the exceptions being GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs whose chances would only remain roughly the same with 3 wins.