2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3

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MoSHBODS is still making fairly large adjustments in its Team Ratings, and this is reflected in the simulation details that appear below.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.

Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 7.4 to 15.1, which has grown in size from last week’s 8.6 to 14.8. We also see that 10 teams are expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%, and that each of those teams is estimated as having at least a 1-in-2 shot at playing Finals, and a 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4. Below them, the estimated Finals chances for the remaining teams are all 1-in-4 or lower, and the estimated Top 4 chances 1-in-16 or lower.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for North Melbourne and West Coast (-1.2 each), while the biggest increases came for Brisbane Lions (+1.2) and Fremantle (+1.1).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were eight double-digit changes in estimate, with Richmond’s falling by almost 15% points, and Hawthorn’s and North Melbourne’s by 12% points. On the plus side, Fremantle’s chances rose by almost 19% points, Brisbane Lions’ by over 15% points, and St Kilda’s and Western Bulldogs’ by 14% points.

Melbourne sit as 2-in-5 chances for the Minor Premiership, ahead of Brisbane Lions on 1-in-5.

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:

  • A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (5.6 to 17.1 wins)

  • Ten teams with roughly a 1-in-2 or greater estimated chance of playing Finals, and eight teams with roughly a 1-in-4 or greater estimated chance of finishing Top 4

  • Melbourne as 9-in-20 chances for the Minor Premiership, and Brisbane Lions about 1-in-4

  • Reasonably similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here too the results are quite similar, although the Heretical methodology has Carlton and Port Adelaide effectively competing for slightly more positions, and Geelong and North Melbourne competing for slightly fewer. Both Systems broadly produce the same estimates for the number of teams effectively competing for each ladder position, although the Heretical methodology has fewer competing for the first two and last two positions on the ladder.

Both methods still suggest that most teams are effectively competing for between about 13 and 16 different ladder positions, and that most ladder positions have effectively between 11 and 16 teams competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, and Geelong, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, 17th, and 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

This week we’ll also take more of an in-depth look at the Standard methodology simulation results, firstly on a team-by-team basis.

Here you can see how the results of the 50,000 simulations look for each team in terms of wins and ladder position.

If we sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.

Here we see, for example, that 12 wins is slightly more likely than 11 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th, and that 13 or 14 wins are about equally likely to be associated with the team that finishes 4th.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Lastly, we’ll use the Standard simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.

Interestingly, the simulations are suggesting that there is a better than even chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and a roughly 1-in-4 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.

There’s also an estimated 9-in-20 chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and a 2-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.