2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

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This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.5 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just 4% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.6 wins, 6% points, and 4% points. Those average percentage point changes are again smaller than we saw last week, hinting again that the overall level of uncertainty is on the decline.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.

Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 6.5 to 16.3, which has grown a little in size from last week’s 7 to 15.8. We also see that only seven teams are expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%, and that six teams are estimated as having at least a roughly 17-in-20 shot at playing Finals, and about a 1-in-2 or better shot at finishing Top 4. Immediately below them, there is Carlton, who are estimated as about 1-in-2 chances of playing Finals. and then four teams with estimated Finals chances of between 1-in-3 and 2-in-5.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for Western Bulldogs (-0.9), while the biggest increase came for Adelaide (+0.9).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were only three double-digit changes in estimate, with Western Bulldogs’s falling by about 17% points, and Essendon’s by over 13% points. On the plus side, Adelaide’s chances rose by 14.5% points.

Melbourne sit as just better than 1-in-2 chances for the Minor Premiership, ahead of Brisbane Lions and Sydney at about 1-in-9, and them Fremantle at about 1-in-12.

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:

  • A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (4.4 to 18 wins)

  • Six teams with roughly a 17-in-20 or greater estimated chance of playing Finals, and six teams with roughly a 1-in-2 or greater estimated chance of finishing Top 4

  • Melbourne as almost 3-in-5 chances for the Minor Premiership, and Sydney, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions as about 1-in-11 chances

  • Similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here we now find that the two methodologies now assess most teams similarly in terms of the number of ladder positions they are effectively competing for, the exceptions being Geelong and West Coast, who the Heretical Methodology has competing for about 1.3 to 1.5 fewer positions than does the Standard Methodology.

Both methods suggest that teams are, on average, effectively competing for about 10 different ladder positions, and that most of them are competing for between 9 and 13 positions.

They also have the average ladder position with effectively 10 teams likely to fill it, and with most ladder positions effectively expecting anywhere between 8 and 14 teams to be competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne, West Coast, and North Melbourne, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, 17th, and 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.

Overall, it’s fairly remarkable how much uncertainty has been removed over the past two rounds.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology

If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.

We find that 12 wins remains more likely than 11 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th, and 14 wins now comfortably more likely than 13 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 4th.

This, of course, varies by team, and in the chart below we look at how likely it is that a given team plays Finals if it records a particular number of wins.

We see, as we did last week, that most teams are about 15 to 25% chances of playing Finals with only 11 wins, and 75 to 80% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins. Carlton’s, West Coast’s, and North Melbourne’s chances are lower in both cases, and Geelong’s, Western Bulldogs’, and Port Adelaide’s higher.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the Standard simulations to again investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.

The simulations are now suggesting that there is now slightly less than an even-money chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and still a roughly 1-in-5 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.

There’s also an estimated 2-in-5 chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and a 1-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.

IMPACT OF NEXT 5 GAMES ON TEAMS’ FINALS CHANCES

Finally, we’ll again investigate, using the Heretical Methodology simulations, what each team’s estimated chances of playing Finals will be in five games’ time, depending on how many of those five games that team has won.

We see that most teams’ Finals chances would shrink to below 5% if they were to lose the next five games, the exceptions being the teams already with 4 or more wins on the board and a 120 or higher percentage.

We also see that most teams’ Finals chances rise to 80% or higher should they win all five, the exceptions being the teams with only one win so far this season.