2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 4

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This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 9% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by 6.5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.8 wins, 8% points, and 7% points.

By way of context, those values are quite similar to those for the previous round, which were:

  • Standard Methodology: 0.7 wins; 9% points for Top 8; 6% points for Top 4

  • Heretical Methodology: 0.8 wins; 7.5 points for Top 8; 5.5% points for Top 4

All of which is to say that, on those metrics, the Round 4 results altered the average team’s chances by about the same amount as did the Round 3 results.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.

Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 8 to 15.5, which has shrunk a little in size from last week’s 7.4 to 15.1. We also see that now only seven teams are expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%, and that each of those teams is estimated as having at least a roughly 3-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and a 1-in-4 shot at finishing Top 4. Below them, the estimated Finals chances for the remaining teams are all 2-in-5 or lower, and the estimated Top 4 chances about 1-in-8 or lower.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for Hawthorn (-1.1) and Collingwood (-1.0), while the biggest increases came for St Kilda and Richmond (+1.0 each).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were seven double-digit changes in estimate, with Hawthorn’s falling by almost 20% points, and Collingwood’s and Western Bulldogs’ by around 15 to 16% points. On the plus side, St Kilda’s chances rose by almost 20% points, Richmond’s by over 17% points, and Fremantle’s by almost 14% points.

Melbourne sit as almost 1-in-2 chances for the Minor Premiership, ahead of Geelong and Brisbane Lions on about 2-in-7.

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:

  • A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (6.4 to 17.5 wins)

  • Seven teams with roughly a 1-in-2 or greater estimated chance of playing Finals, and six teams with roughly a 1-in-4 or greater estimated chance of finishing Top 4

  • Melbourne as 5-in-9 chances for the Minor Premiership, Geelong 3-in-20, and Brisbane Lions about 1-in-9

  • Reasonably similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here too the results are quite similar, although the Heretical methodology has Geelong and West Coast effectively competing for slightly fewer positions, and Port Adelaide for slightly more. Both Systems broadly produce the same estimates for the number of teams effectively competing for each ladder position.

Both methods still suggest that most teams are effectively competing for between about 13 and 16 different ladder positions, and that most ladder positions have effectively between 11 and 16 teams competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne, West Coast, North Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, and Geelong, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, 17th, and 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology

If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.

We now find that 12 wins is about as likely as 11 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th, and that 13 wins is slightly more likely than 14 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 4th.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Lastly, we’ll use the Standard simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.

The simulations are still suggesting that there is a better than even chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and a roughly 1-in-4 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.

There’s also still an estimated 9-in-20 chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, but now only a 1-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.

IMPACT OF NEXT 5 GAMES ON TEAMS’ FINALS CHANCES

Finally this week we’ll create one additional chart using the Heretical Methodology simulations in order to look ahead five games and see what each team’s estimated chances of playing Finals will then be, depending on how many of those five games that team has won.

We see that, for example, North Melbourne’s estimated Finals chances would shrink to essentially zero if they were to lose the next five games, but leap to almost 40% should they win four of the five (the percentage for five wins is not shown because that outcome is extremely unlikely, and that for one win is also not shown, but here because the value is so similar to that for zero wins).

North Melbourne and West Coast aside, we see that any team recording

  • five straight wins should wind up with a 7-in-10 or higher chance of playing Finals

  • four straight wins should wind up with a 1-in-2 or higher chance of playing Finals (though a little less for Port Adelaide)