2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 11
/The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:
Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and about a 3-in-5 chance to be Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions: 65-70% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-5 or 1-in-6 chance of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, St Kilda, and Geelong: 80-90% chance of playing Finals, 40-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-10% chances for Minor Premiership
Carlton: 70-80% chance of playing Finals, 30-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership
Sydney, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs: 55-65% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership
Collingwood and Gold Coast: 35-45% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish
Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish
Hawthorn, Adelaide, and GWS: 1-4% chance of playing Finals
Essendon: less than 1% chance of playing Finals
North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon
(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.
Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 4.0 to 16.6, which has shrink a little in size from last week’s 4.5 to 17.6. We also see that an unprecedented 11 teams are now expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%.
The biggest decline in Expected Win tally came for Melbourne (-1), while the biggest increase came for Fremantle (+1.3).
In terms of Top 8 chances, there were five double-digit changes in estimate, including Fremantle (+16% points), Gold Coast (+11%), Richmond (-12%), and Hawthorn and Carlton (-11%).
Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:
A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (2.5 to 17.2 wins)
A similar ordering of the teams in terms of Expected Wins with only Carlton and Geelong, and Collingwood and Gold Coast, switched
Broadly similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances (although the Standard Methodology had Sydney’s Finals chances increasing while the Heretical Methodology had them falling)
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the top, and those from the Heretical methodology on the bottom. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).
STANDARD METHODOLOGY
heretical methodology
Here we again find that the two methodologies assess most teams similarly in terms of the number of ladder positions they are effectively competing for.
Both methods suggest that teams are, on average, effectively competing for about 8 different ladder positions, and both have most teams competing for between 6 and 11 or 12 positions, the exceptions being Essendon, North Melbourne, Melbourne, and West Coast.
standard methodology
heretical methodology
They also have the average ladder position with effectively 8 teams likely to fill it, and with most ladder positions effectively expecting anywhere between 5 and 11 teams to be competing for them. The exceptions amongst the ladder positions are 1st, 16th, 17th and 18th.
It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty - 8th and 9th in particular, according to both methodologies. Interestingly, however, there is still quite a lot of uncertainty around positions 4th, 5th, and 6th.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology
If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.
We find that 12 wins is still more likely than 11 or 13 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th (although 13 wins has become a little more likely), and 14 wins also still more likely than 13 or 15 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 4th (although 15 wins has become a little more likely).
This, of course, varies by team, and in the chart below we look at how likely it is that a given team plays Finals if it records a particular number of wins, and how likely that outcome is. In the first chart we use the results from the Standard Methodology, and in the second chart from the Heretical Methodology.
We see that teams are less than 10% chances of playing Finals under either methodology with only 11 wins, and 25 to 60% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins under the Standard Methodology, and 20 to 50% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins under the Heretical Methodology, which tends to allocate more wins to teams that finish higher on the ladder. With 13 wins, an average team is a 90-98% chance of playing Finals under the Standard Methodology, and a 75-95% chance under the Heretical Methodology.
Repeating the analysis for finishing in the Top 4.
Here we find, again, somewhat different estimates depending on the methodology we choose. Under the Standard Methodology, 13 wins is associated with about 1 to 8% chances of a Top 4 finish, 14 wins with 30 to 60% chances, and 15 wins with 90-98% chances.
Under the Heretical Methodology, as noted above, more wins are associated with higher-finishing teams, and the equivalent percentage ranges are under 3% for 13 wins, 10-35% for 14 wins, and 60-85% for 15 wins.
At season’s end it will be interesting to review which of the methodologies has seemed to provide better-calibrated probability estimates in this and in prior seasons.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the Standard simulations to again investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.
The simulations are still suggesting that there is now a slightly better than an even-money chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and still a roughly 1-in-5 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.
There’s also an almost even-money chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and about a 1-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.
IMPACT OF NEXT 5 GAMES ON TEAMS’ FINALS CHANCES
Finally, we’ll again investigate, this time using both the Standard (top chart) and the Heretical )bottom chart) methodology simulations, what each team’s estimated chances of playing Finals will be in five games’ time, depending on how many of those five games that team has won.
We see that most teams’ chances of playing Finals still increase only if they win at least 3 of their next 5 games, the exceptions being Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and West Coast whose chances would only remain roughly the same (or, In Gold Coast’s case, slightly lower) with 3 wins.
