2022 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5

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This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 7% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, 7% points, and 5.5% points. Those average percentage point changes are smaller than we saw last week, which perhaps indicates that the simulations are settling down somewhat.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Standard methodology (aka “cold” sims) appear on the left, and those using the Heretical methodology (aka “hot” sims) appear on the right.

Looking first just at the Standard Methodology, we see that the range of Expected Wins now runs from 7 to 15.8, which has grown a little in size from last week’s 8 to 15.5. We also see that only seven teams are expected to finish with a win percentage above 50%, and that each of those teams is estimated as having at least a roughly 3-in-5 shot at playing Finals, and about a 1-in-4 shot at finishing Top 4. Below them, the estimated Finals chances for the remaining teams are all 1-in-2 or lower, and the estimated Top 4 chances about 1-in-6 or lower.

The biggest declines in Expected Win tally came for West Coast(-1.2) and Collingwood (-1.1), while the biggest increase came for Sydney (+1.1).

In terms of Top 8 chances, there were six double-digit changes in estimate, with Richmond’s falling by 14% points, and Essendon’s by over 12% points. On the plus side, St Kilda’s chances rose by almost 16% points, and Fremantle’s, Western Bulldogs’ and Hawthorn’s by about 11 to 13% points.

Melbourne sit as about 1-in-2 chances for the Minor Premiership, ahead of Brisbane Lions, Sydney, St Kilda, and Fremantle all in the approximate 1-in-10 to 1-in-13 range.

Comparing the results for the Standard and Heretical Methodologies we find:

  • A much larger range of Expected Wins from the Heretical approach (5.2 to 17.6 wins)

  • Seven teams with roughly a 1-in-2 or greater estimated chance of playing Finals, and six teams with roughly a 2-in-5 or greater estimated chance of finishing Top 4

  • Melbourne as 5-in-9 chances for the Minor Premiership, and Sydney and Brisbane Lions about 1-in-12 chances

  • Similar estimates for the changes in teams’ Finals chances

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent simulation replicates appear below, with those from the Standard methodology on the left, and those from the Heretical methodology on the right. (For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

Standard Methodology - 50,000 Replicates

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY - 2,500 REPLICATES

Here we now find that the Heretical methodology assesses roughly half the teams as effectively competing for a position or two less, or a position or two more than does the Standard Methodology. The biggest differences are for Essendon, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide. Both Systems, however, broadly produce the same estimates for the number of teams effectively competing for each ladder position.

Both methods still suggest that most teams are effectively competing for between about 10 and 14 different ladder positions, and that most ladder positions have effectively between 9 and 15 teams competing for them. The exceptions amongst the teams are Melbourne, West Coast, and North Melbourne, and amongst the ladder positions 1st, 2nd, 17th, and 18th.

It is also, as usual, the mid-table positions that are associated with most uncertainty.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Here’s an updated view of the distribution of team wins and final ladder position, based on the Standard Methodology

If we, again, sum across all the teams, we can see how many wins are most likely for each ladder position, as shown in the chart below.

We find that 12 wins is now more likely than 11 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 8th, and 14 wins more likely than 13 wins to be associated with the team that finishes 4th.

This, of course, varies by team, and in the chart below we look at how likely it is that a given team plays Finals if it records a particular number of wins.

We see that most teams are about 15 to 25% chances of playing Finals with only 11 wins, and 75 to 80% chances of playing Finals with exactly 12 wins. Carlton’s chances are lowest in both cases, and Geelong’s, Western Bulldogs’, and Port Adelaide’s highest.

Here’s a similar analysis, but here looking at wins to finish in the Top 4.

We see that there’s quite a lot of variability in teams’ chances of finishing Top 4 if they register only 14 wins - somewhere in the 65% to 80% range - but much less variability if they register 15 wins.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the Standard simulations to again investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions be determined after Round 23 based on percentage.

The simulations are now suggesting that there is about an even-money chance that 8th and 9th on the final home and away ladder will be separated only on the basis of percentage, and a roughly 1-in-5 chance that 8th and 10th will also only be separated on that basis.

There’s also an estimated 4-in-9 chance that 4th and 5th will be decided on percentages, and a 1-in-5 chance that this will be how the Minor Premiership is decided.

IMPACT OF NEXT 5 GAMES ON TEAMS’ FINALS CHANCES

Finally, we’ll again investigate, using the Heretical Methodology simulations, what each team’s estimated chances of playing Finals will be in five games’ time, depending on how many of those five games that team has won.

We see that most teams’ Finals chances would shrink to below 10% if they were to lose the next five games, and rise to near 90% should they win all five. We also see that the only way Port Adelaide’s and GWS’ Finals probability will be above 50% in five games’ time, is if they win all five.