WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week as it finds itself with a very different opinion about the relative abilities of the Eagles and the Dogs.
It expects:
Melbourne (68) to be the highest scoring team
Fremantle (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Gold Coast v GWS (94) to be the highest scoring game
Adelaide v North Melbourne (68) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4.5 home teams to win, and 7.1 favourites.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 90%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Collingwood and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (75-80% chances to play Finals): Essendon and Geelong
Tier 4 (15-25% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Richmond, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Fremantle
Tier 6 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
WoSHBODS tipped only 4 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 21.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game in what can only be described as a textbook regression towards the mean. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 17.0 Margin MAE, and 19.8 Totals MAE.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken the unders in the Fremantle game (and would have taken the overs in the Collingwood game but for the forecast of showers)
WoSHBODS has taken two overs bets today.
WoSHBODS has taken u77.5 in tonight’s game
WoSHBODS’ is tipping one (or maybe two) upsets this week: Geelong to narrowly beat Collingwood, and Adelaide to beat Brisbane, which is only an upset according to Sportsbet.
It expects:
Gold Coast (63) to be the highest scoring team
West Coas (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Western Bulldogs v Sydney (100) to be the highest scoring game
Hawthorn v Richmond (67) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 3.8 home teams to win, and 6.4 favourites.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals and 25-35% for Top 4): Essendon, Brisbane, and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (65-80% chances to play Finals and 5-10% for Top 4): Geelong and Collingwood
Tier 4 (40% chances to play Finals): Carlton
Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Richmond
Tier 6 (<5% chances to play Finals): Sydney, Fremantle, and Hawthorn
Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
WoSHBODS tipped all 9 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 10.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.6 points per game. That took it to a season long 78% accuracy, 16.3 Margin MAE, and 20.2 Totals MAE. I’m not sure that a reasonable person could hope for much better than this at this point in the season, given the inherent variability in AFLW performances.
Read MoreJust one unders wager from WoSHBODS today.
Just one unders and one overs wager from WoSHBODS today.
WoSHBODS has taken the unders on tonight’s game.
WoSHBODS’ is again tipping two upsets this week: Hawthorn to beat Sydney, and Essendon to beat Richmond. Both are expected to be very narrow victories.
It expects:
Melbourne (86) to be the highest scoring team
Port Adelaide (13) to be the lowest scoring team
West Coast v Melbourne (99) to be the highest scoring game
Richmond v Essendon (64) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 5.0 home teams to win, and 7.0 favourites.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 98% for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne
Tier 2 (95%+ chances to play Finals and 50% for Top 4): Gold Coast
Tier 3 (80-85% chances to play Finals and 15-20% for Top 4): Essendon and Brisbane
Tier 4 (50-70% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Geelong, and Collingwood
Tier 5 (15-30% chances to play Finals): Richmond, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 6 (5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle
Tier 6 (Less than 0.1% chances to play Finals): and Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast
WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners again this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 13.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.3 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.4 Margin MAE, and 20.6 Totals MAE.
Read MoreOne final unders wager for Investors today
The bookmakers continue to play ducks and drakes with the AFLW Totals markets, today waiting until about 12:20pm in the TAB’s case to post markets. Sportsbet posted them about 45 minutes earlier.
Anyway, WoSHBODS likes three of them, two as overs and one as unders
WoSHBODS’ is tipping two upsets this week: Gold Coast to beat Richmond, and Sydney to beat Port Adelaide. Neither would be huge upsets, but dogs beating favourites they would nonetheless be.
It expects:
Sydney (56) to be the highest scoring team
Fremantle (7) to be the lowest scoring team
Port Adelaide v Sydney (103) to be the highest scoring game
Fremantle v North Melbourne (54) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4.0 home teams to win, and 6.6 favourites.
Read MoreSo, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 90% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong
Tier 3 (40-60% chances to play Finals): Richmond, Carlton,15- and Essendon
Tier 4 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): Fremantle and Hawthorn
Tier 6 (Less than 0.2% chances to play Finals): Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast
The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:
Carlton: +17% points (to 46%)
Collingwood: +16% points (to 32%)
St Kilda: +11% points (to 21%)
Richmond: -22% points (to 39%)
Sydney: -14% points (to 17%)
WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 18.7 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.2 points per game. That took it to a season long 76% accuracy, 18.2 Margin MAE, and 21.1 Totals MAE.
Read MoreInvestors have taken the unders in the first two Sunday games whilst awaiting a TAB market for the third.
As I type this, which is about 40 minutes out from the first game of the day, Sportsbet have no overs/unders markets for any of the four Friday games, and the TAB have markets for all of them.
So, because I have client work to be getting on with (report writing - please contain your excitement) and no faith that Sportsbet will eventually post anything, Investors have waded into these markets armed only with TAB prices. Three of which, we like. See below.
Almost missed this one (Thursday 6:15 start?). Anyway, we’ve taken the overs.
WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week, which is for Sydney to defeat the Blues away at Ikon Park. Otherwise, it’s favourites everywhere you look, and by an average expected margin of almost 21 points per game.
Read MoreBelow is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 80% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong
Tier 3 (60-70% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon
Tier 4 (30% chances to play Finals): Carlton and Sydney
Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood and St Kilda
Tier 5 (0.5-2.5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs
Tier 6 (Less than 0.5% chances to play Finals): GWS and West Coast
After 4 weeks, WoSHBODS is at 78% accuracy and has an 18.0 Margin MAE and a 21.8 Totals MAE. There isn’t much around to compare those number to, but they seem quite acceptable to me.
Read MoreNow that we’re in on the scheme we know to start looking for over/under markets about an hour or two before game time, and today WoSHBODS finds value in four of the five contests.
To say that the TAB’s and Sportsbet’s approach to Totals markets for the AFLW seems haphazard would be to state the obvious. Markets for two of the three 1:05 games today went up sometime in the last hour or so. Investors are on them both, as shown below.
(Note also that this table corrects an error in the GWS v Adelaide game where Investors have Adelaide -35.5 not -36.5 as previously advised.
So, it appears that the TAB and Sportsbet might now be offering overs/unders markets, albeit only quite close to the game if today is any indication.
Anyway, we’ve tahen u109.5 on this afternoon’s game for 5% of the Fund. All overs/unders wagers this year will be of the same size..
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