AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 5

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 90% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide

  • Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 3 (40-60% chances to play Finals): Richmond, Carlton,15- and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): Fremantle and Hawthorn

  • Tier 6 (Less than 0.2% chances to play Finals): Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Carlton: +17% points (to 46%)

  • Collingwood: +16% points (to 32%)

  • St Kilda: +11% points (to 21%)

  • Richmond: -22% points (to 39%)

  • Sydney: -14% points (to 17%)

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

The Flag remains mostly a race in four between Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane. That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they still rate Brisbane higher and Adelaide lower.