AFLW Round 8 Results - Regressed

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WoSHBODS tipped only 4 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 21.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game in what can only be described as a textbook regression towards the mean. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 17.0 Margin MAE, and 19.8 Totals MAE.

We can, as usual, review WoSHBODS’ Accuracy and MAE by subdividing games based on the final margin, which we do in the table at right.

It shows that WoSHBODS is now 45 from 48 in games that have been won by 2 goals or more, but also that its MAE is only 13.2 points per game across all the games won by under 4 goals.

In games won by less than 2 goals, WoSHBODS is only 8 from 24 in terms of accuracy, which remains considerably worse than chance.

We can also look at how WoSHBODS has performed on a team-by-team basis, firstly in terms of MAE, which we do in the table at left.

It shows that the final margins in games involving Hawthorn, Fremantle, or GWS have been very well forecast - generally within about 14 points of the actual margin - while those in games involving Gold Coast, West Coast, or Western Bulldogs have been less well forecast and in error by as much as 4 or more goals.

Overall, game margins have been forecast with an MAE of just 17 points per team per game, which remains entirely acceptable.



We can also review how well WoSHBODS has estimated the victory probabilities of each team by looking at the log probability score recorded in those games in which they were involved, which we do in the table at right.

It reveals that WoSHBODS has done well at estimating win probabilities for games involving Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, or GWS, and less well at games involving Brisbane, Essendon, Collingwood, West Coast, or St Kilda. For those five teams, LPSs have actually been negative.

Overall, however, a positive LPS has been recorded for 13 of the 18 teams.




WAGERING

On wagering, Investors recorded only their third losing round of the season, thanks entirely to the loses made by the Line Fund.

It finished down 4.4c on the round, while the Head-to-Head Fund broke even, and the Overs/Unders made a rare 17.6c profit. That left the Combined Portfolio down by 2c on the round, but up by 11.4c on the season, that from a +16% ROI on a 0.7 turn.

Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 5% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.

Line betting on away teams remains attractively lucrative, as does head-to-head betting on anything but away team favourites.

TEAM DASHBOARD

In the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics chart, the metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.96

  • Points Conceded: +0.92

  • Goals Conceded: +0.91

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.89

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.87

  • Q1 Performances: +0.82

  • Own Points Scored: +0.79

  • Own Goals Scored: +0.78

  • Own Scoring Shots: +0.76

  • Q4 Performances: +0.72

The metric least correlated is:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.4

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.46

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It shows, among other things, that no team has won more than 25 of the 32 quarters they’ve played in, and that GWS and West Coast have won only eight. It also shows that Melbourne have generated over 12 more scoring shots than their opponents across entire games, including 5 more of them per game in Q4s. They have a 950 percentage in that quarter.

Geelong have now scored 37% of their points in Q1s, and conceded only 8%. Collingwood have conceded 40% of their points in Q4s, Carlton 40%, and GWS 35%. Melbourne have conceded 35% of their points in Q3s but only 8% in Q4s.

Hawthorn have still yet to win a Q1, and Adelaide are yet to lose a Q3 (where their percentage is 765). Melbourne are yet to lose a Q4.

Geelong also have a Q1 percentage of 568, and North Melbourne a Q4 percentage of 326.

GWS have a Q4 percentage of 29, but 103 in Q3s., while Collingwood has a Q1 percentage of 329, but a Q4 of just 23.