AFLW Round 6 Results - Better

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WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners again this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 13.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 18.3 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.4 Margin MAE, and 20.6 Totals MAE.

We can, as usual, review WoSHBODS’ Accuracy and MAE by subdividing games based on the final margin, which we do in the table at right.

It shows that WoSHBODS is now 34 from 36 in games that have been won by 2 goals or more, but also that its MAE is under 15.5 points per game across all the games won by under 4 goals.

In games won by less than 2 goals, WoSHBODS is only 6 from 18 in terms of accuracy, which is worse than chance.

We can also look at how WoSHBODS has performed on a team-by-team basis, firstly in terms of MAE, which we do in the table at left.

It shows that the final margins in games involving Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle, or Essendon have been very well forecast - generally within just over two goals of the actual margin - while those in games involving Gold Coast or West Coast have been less well forecast and in error by as much as 4 or more goals.

Overall, game margins have been forecast with an MAE of just under goals, which remains entirely acceptable.



We can also review how well WoSHBODS has estimated the victory probabilities of each team by looking at the log probability score recorded in those games in which they were involved, which we do in the table at right.

It reveals that WoSHBODS has done well at estimating win probabilities for games involving GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, or Gold Coast, and less well at games involving Collingwood, Brisbane, or St Kilda.

For those three teams, LPSs have actually been negative.




WAGERING

On wagering, a very healthy profit was recorded by the Combined Portfolio, which rose by over 6c, despite a disappointing performance by the Overs/Unders Fund, which is now down by 5.6c on the season.

In contrast, the Head-to-Head Fund is up by 4.6c, and the Line Fund by 12.4c, which has left the Combined Portfolio up by 9c, that from a +17% ROI on a 0.54 turn.

Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 5% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.

Line betting on away team favourites remains attractively lucrative.

TEAM DASHBOARD

In the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics chart, the metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.98

  • Points Conceded and Goals Conceded: +0.91

  • Own Goals Scored: +0.9

  • Own Points Scored: +0.89

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.89

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.85

  • Own Scoring Shots: +0.79

The metrics least correlated are:

  • Opponent Scoring Shots: +0.14

  • Q3 Perfomances: +0.48

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It shows, among other things, that no team has won more than 19 of the 24 quarters they’ve played in, and that GWS and West Coast have won only five. It also shows that Adelaide have generated almost 10 more scoring shots than their opponents across entire games, including 6.3 more of them in second halfs.

Also, Geelong have scored 40% of their points in Q1s, and conceded only 9%. They also have a stunning 74% conversion rate in Q1s. In contrast, they’ve recorded on 20% of their points in Q4s, but conceded 31%, which is above only Carlton (43%), Collingwood (40%), and GWS (37%) for Q4s,

Hawthorn have yet to win a Q1 or Q3, and Adelaide are yet to lose a Q3 (where their percentage is 605) and Melbournyet to lose e a Q4 (where their percentage is 832).

GWS have a percentage of 6 in Q4s, but 111 in Q3s..