AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 4

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 80% for Top 4): Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide

  • Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Geelong

  • Tier 3 (60-70% chances to play Finals): Richmond and Essendon

  • Tier 4 (30% chances to play Finals): Carlton and Sydney

  • Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): Collingwood and St Kilda

  • Tier 5 (0.5-2.5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs

  • Tier 6 (Less than 0.5% chances to play Finals): GWS and West Coast

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Essendon: +18% points

  • Brisbane: +14% points

  • Collingwood: -25% points

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

The Flag is then mostly a race in four between Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane. That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they rate Brisbane higher and Adelaide lower.