AFLW 2023 - Round 9

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WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week as it finds itself with a very different opinion about the relative abilities of the Eagles and the Dogs.

It expects:

  • Melbourne (68) to be the highest scoring team

  • Fremantle (23) to be the lowest scoring team

  • Gold Coast v GWS (94) to be the highest scoring game

  • Adelaide v North Melbourne (68) to be the lowest scoring game

It also expects 4.5 home teams to win, and 7.1 favourites.

WAGERING

WoSHBODS wagering comprises seven head-to-head and two line bets this week. Altogether, the seven head-to-head bets total about 22% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund (thanks largely to a 7% wager on Gold Coast and a just under 6% wager on Collingwood), and the two line bets total just under 10% of the original Line Fund (thanks to a 7% wager on Western Bulldogs). Overall, 13% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.

You can see the various impacts on the Combined Portfolio across all possible game outcomes in the Ready Reckoner below.

Clearly, the Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs wagers will have a large say in profitability this week.

This week’s wagering breaks down as:

Head-to-Head (as % of Head-to-Head Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 10.3%

  • Home Dogs: 0%

  • Away Favourites: 8.4%

  • Away Dogs: 3.3%

Line (as % of Line Fund)

  • Home Favourites: 2.7%

  • Home Dogs: 0%

  • Away Favourites: 0%

  • Away Dogs: 7.1%