AFLW Round 7 Results - Best

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WoSHBODS tipped all 9 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of only 10.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.6 points per game. That took it to a season long 78% accuracy, 16.3 Margin MAE, and 20.2 Totals MAE. I’m not sure that a reasonable person could hope for much better than this at this point in the season, given the inherent variability in AFLW performances.

We can, as usual, review WoSHBODS’ Accuracy and MAE by subdividing games based on the final margin, which we do in the table at right.

It shows that WoSHBODS is now 43 from 45 in games that have been won by 2 goals or more, but also that its MAE is only 13.2 points per game across all the games won by under 4 goals.

In games won by less than 2 goals, WoSHBODS is only 6 from 18 in terms of accuracy, which remains worse than chance.

We can also look at how WoSHBODS has performed on a team-by-team basis, firstly in terms of MAE, which we do in the table at left.

It shows that the final margins in games involving Hawthorn, Fremantle, or Sydney have been very well forecast - generally within two goals of the actual margin - while those in games involving Gold Coast, Brisbane, or West Coast have been less well forecast and in error by as much as 4 or more goals.

Overall, game margins have been forecast with an MAE of just over 16 points per team per game, which remains entirely acceptable.



We can also review how well WoSHBODS has estimated the victory probabilities of each team by looking at the log probability score recorded in those games in which they were involved, which we do in the table at right.

It reveals that WoSHBODS has done well at estimating win probabilities for games involving Melbourne, North Melbourne, GWS, or Adelaide, and less well at games involving Collingwood, Brisbane, or St Kilda. For those three teams, LPSs have actually been negative.

Overall, however, a positive LPS has been recorded for 15 of the 18 teams.




WAGERING

(NB An earlier version of this section excluded an additional overs/unders loss)

On wagering, another healthy profit was recorded by the Combined Portfolio this week, which rose by just 4.5c, its second-highets single round increase this season, despite another disappointing performance by the Overs/Unders Fund, which is now down by 16.4c on the season.

In contrast, the Head-to-Head Fund is up by 7.9c, and the Line Fund by 18.5c, which has left the Combined Portfolio up by 13.4c, that from a +22% ROI on a 0.6 turn.

Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 5% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.

Line betting on away teams remains attractively lucrative, as does head-to-head betting on away team underdogs to a lesser degree.

TEAM DASHBOARD

In the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics chart, the metric rankings currently most highly correlated with the competition ladder rankings are:

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.98

  • Points Conceded and Goals Conceded: +0.93

  • Own Goals Scored: +0.9

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.89

  • Own Points Scored: +0.88

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.87

  • Own Scoring Shots: +0.78

  • Q1 Performances: +0.73

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.72

  • Q4 Performances: +0.71

The metric least correlated is:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.29

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It shows, among other things, that no team has won more than 23 of the 28 quarters they’ve played in, and that GWS and West Coast have won only six. It also shows that Adelaide have generated over 9 more scoring shots than their opponents across entire games, including 6.3 more of them in second halfs.

Also, Geelong have scored 39% of their points in Q1s, and conceded only 8%. In contrast, they’ve recorded on 20% of their points in Q4s, but conceded 32%, which is above only Carlton (39%), Collingwood (40%), and GWS (34%) for Q4s,

Hawthorn have still yet to win a Q1, and Adelaide are yet to lose a Q3 (where their percentage is 700) and Melbourne are yet to lose a Q4 (where their percentage is 958).

Geelong also have a Q1 percentage of 620, and North Melbourne a Q4 percentage of 410.

GWS have a percentage of 16 in Q4s, but 105 in Q3s., while Collingwood has a Q1 percentage of 333, but a Q4 of just 25.