2022 - Round 8 : On The Line

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The TAB Bookmaker is forecasting some fairly unattractive scorelines this week, which has brought the all-game average expected victory margin in at just over 22 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 8 since 2017.

Driving that average up is the expected 7-goal victory margin in the Fremantle v North Melbourne game, and the expected 11-goal victory margin in the Brisbane Lions v West Coast game.

Preventing the average from going even higher are the four games that are expected to have victory margins of around two goals or less.

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2022 - Round 7 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

Swans by 10 points is MoSHPlay’s final view.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it now as Pies by 17 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Saints by 4 points and Carlton by 27 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

Cats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7:30PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 12 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has gone with all nine favourites, but is the most extreme Predictor in four of the games.

2022 - Round 7 : The Lull

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The TAB Bookmaker has another broad range of expected margins this week, with a low of 2.5 points and a high of 29.5 points.

All but two of the contests have expected margins under three goals, which has resulted in an all-game average of 14.6 points per game, the lowest this season since Round 3, and the third-lowest for a Round 7 in the history that I have.

Only two games are expected to be won by more than 17 points: Melbourne over Hawthorn, and Carlton over North Melbourne.

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2022 - Round 6 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 2:45PM MONDAY

Pies by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Brisbane Lions by 17 points.


UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Port by 35 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay ends up at Dogs by 18 points, which is the lowest forecasted margin of any of the MoS Margin Predictors.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the nine games in Round 6, making some assumptions about the likely final 23s for each team. MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in only one game.

2022 - Round 5 Results - No Regress

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With the exception of MoSHPlay_Marg on head-to-head tipping (the form of tipping where genuine talent is least likely to prevail), the MoS trio continue to rank highly on the Tipster Dashboard.

Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was MoSSBODS_Marg’s eight from nine, which saw it join MoSHBODS_Marg in first place on the Leaderboard with 31 from 45 (69%), two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins. The all-Tipster average was 6.8 from 9, despite the fact that only 6 favourites won.

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2022 - Round 5 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE MONDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Cats by 17 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 4PM

It’s Essendon by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

MoSHPlay moves to Saints by 24 points..


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 11 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

It’s looking like a very restrained MoSHPlay week, with so far only a single most-extreme prediction, and that by just 3 points.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 8:45PM

MoSHPlay is very much in keeping with the mainstream crowd in forecasting a Lions win by 28 points

2022 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 3:45PM SUNDAY

And it’s Carlton by 3 points to end the round for MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to Hawks by 1 point..

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay is now Essendon by only 9 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Just minor tweaks for the two upcoming games, which leaves MoSHPlay at Dogs by 17 and Dockers by 5.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Pies by 27 points. Final answer.

UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY

It’s the Swans by 39 points, according to MoSHPlay..

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay is now, essentially, calling the Cats v Lions game a draw.

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay in the round’s other games at this point, although it is siding with the majority, and against its siblings, in the Suns v Blues game.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 18 points.

UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY

MoSHPlay’s opening bid on the Thursday game is Melbourne by 21 points.