2022 - Round 8 : On The Line

/

The TAB Bookmaker is forecasting some fairly unattractive scorelines this week, which has brought the all-game average expected victory margin in at just over 22 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 8 since 2017.

Driving that average up is the expected 7-goal victory margin in the Fremantle v North Melbourne game, and the expected 11-goal victory margin in the Brisbane Lions v West Coast game.

Preventing the average from going even higher are the four games that are expected to have victory margins of around two goals or less.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s a little more dissent this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, as five of them - Home Sweet Home, Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, and the MoS twins - have opted for the underdogs in at least one of the nine contests.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in all but two of the games, including a whopping 26-point range in the Sydney v Gold Coast game, where MoSSBODS_Marg is not as keen on the Swans as are the rest of the forecasters, and a similarly large 25-point range in the Brisbane Lions v West Coast game where, unusually, it’s two bookmaker-based forecasters defining the extremities.

Speaking of extremities, MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, with the largest being 19% points for both the Richmond v Collingwood, and Sydney v Gold Coast games. In both of those games MoSSBODS_Prob is defining one end of the range, and Bookie_LPSO the other.

MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO have the most extreme probability estimates in six games.

WAGERS

In what I think is an unprecedented situation, Investors this week have seven line bets and no head-to-head bets.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Having said that, MoSHBODS does see value in five of the teams that MoSSBODS has forced the Line Fund to wager on, and in four cases would have, itself, asked the Head-to-Head Fund to make a wager were it not for the “no away team head-to-head wagering” rule.

Individually, the line bets range in size from 0.5% to 2.8% of the original Line Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 5c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by 6c.

Collingwood carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Gold Coast loss by 28 points or less and a larger Gold Coast loss representing a 3.4c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Collingwood representing a potential swing of 3c, and the remaining wagers representing individual swings of between 0.6c and 1.9c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.