2022 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders

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The average absolute difference between MoSSBODS and bookmaker expected Totals this week is about 8.5 points per game, and between MoSHBODS and bookmaker expected Totals is about 7.5 points per game. Those are some of the highest figures this season, surpassed only by those for Round 16, where expected rainfall in a few games dragged the bookmakers’ Totals lower, and by those for Round 14, which included only six games and which was also expected to be rain-affected. Only one game this week is expected to be rain-affected.

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2022 - Round 23 : No More Home and Away

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This week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, four more where they are separated by between 6 and 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 16 places.

That has resulted in a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under about three goals, two more sized at about three-and-a-half goals, and one sized at about ten-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 20.1 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 23 standards though higher than last year’s figures. It takes the all-season average expected margin to its final value of 18.1 points per game, which is the highest since 2018.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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Geelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week, while Sydney impressed MoSSBODS enough to move into 2nd, thereby aligning the Top 3s under both Systems.

In total, there were nine moves on MoSSBODS and seven on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st through 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, and 15th through 18th teams. Carlton is the only team for which their rankings differ by more than a single place.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 22 Results - Fine Margins

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The RSMP twins tipped all nine winners this week, and five other Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged eight, which included MoSSBODS_Marg but not MoSHBODS_Marg and left us with a tie at the top of the Leaderboard.

Both MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg are now on 140.5 from 189 (74%) with just 18 games to play, followed by Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins on 133.5 from 189 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is one tip further back.

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2022 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

Essendon by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

A very (overly?) confident MoSHPlay has it as Swans by 31 points.

UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY

Adelaide by only 26 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1:45PM SATURDAY

Dogs by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor - at the moment - in three games, including the Crows v Roos game where its forecast is 12 points different from MoSHBODS’.

2022 - Round 22 : Overs/Unders

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There are some larger-than-usual differences of opinion between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with the average absolute difference in their Totals forecasts coming in at 4.7 points per game, which is comfortably the highest this season, breaking the previous high of 4.0 points per game from Round 20.

Between the two, MoSSBODS’ forecasts are more similar to the bookmakers’, both at the individual game level and at the level of the overall average expected Totals.

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2022 - Round 22 : Penultimate

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This week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 6 places (in five of which the difference is 4 places or fewer), one where they are separated by exactly 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 11 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under three-and-a-half goals, and three more size at between four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 19.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 22 standards. It takes the all-season average expected margin to 18 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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Geelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week as the two teams below them dropped Rating points. On MoSHBODS that was enough to see Sydney take 2nd, relegating Melbourne to 3rd while on MoSSBOS the declines were roughly equally-sized, allowing Melbourne to retain 2nd.

In total, there were 11 moves on MoSSBODS and nine on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st, 6th, and 9th through 18th teams. There is now no team where they differ in their rankings by more than a single place.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and just nine now on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 21 Results - Another Step Closer

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Early-week favourites fared generally poorly this week, with only five of them taking the competition points. The Top 3 Tipsters on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard all scored five from nine, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 133.5 from 171 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 132.5 (74%), and then Bookie Knows Best on 125.5 (70%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 124.5 (69%).

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2022 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 3:30PM

It’s the Crows by 9 points in the last game of the round, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:45PM

Lions by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 6:45PM

Cats by 27 points and Port by 18, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

Dogs by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

MoSHPlay has finished at Hawks by 6 points and Essendon by 10 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay is currently the extreme Margin Predictor in just one game.

2022 - Round 21 : Keys to the Finals Door

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This week includes a remarkable seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, one where they are separated by exactly 7 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 14 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes seven sized at about two-and-a-half goals or less, and two sized at about six-and-a-half or seven-and-a-half goals.

The overall average expected margin is 16.3 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 21 standards, and the lowest in the history of the data shown here. It drops the all-season average expected margin to just under 18.0 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 20

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Geelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS for the second week running and essential remaining static on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Melbourne leap-frogged Sydney to take second.

In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and the same number on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st to 6th, 8th, and 13th through 18th teams. There is now only one team where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and twelve, with Essendon just making the cut, on MoSHBODS,

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2022 - Round 20 Results - Almost Perfect

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Seven early-week favourites again won this week, which set the floor for the Head-to-Head Tipster performances as five Tipsters recorded seven correct tips, and four recorded eight correct tips. Two of those scoring eight from nine were the team-based MoS models, which left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard and now on 128.5 from 171 (75%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 127.5 (75%), and then Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, all now eight tips behind, on 120.5 (71%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 119.5 (70%).

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2022 - Round 20 : Getting Warmer

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This week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 3 and 5 places, and five where they are separated by exactly 7 places or 9 places.

That’s translated into a set of expected margins that includes:

  • 4 games under about a goal

  • 2 games from about two to three goals

  • 3 games from about five to six goals.

The overall average expected margin is 17.2 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 20 standards, and the lowest since 2017. It keeps the all-season average expected margin at about 18.0 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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Geelong, despite losing Rating Points on MoSSBODS and barely gaining them on MoSHBODS, retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney held onto second and Melbourne third.

In total there were seven moves on MoSSBODS and just two on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 12th through 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.

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2022 - Round 19 Results - Ridiculously Precise

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Seven early-week favourites won this week, and an eighth drew, and the extremely low levels of contrarian head-to-head tipping meant that virtually nothing happened on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard save for Home Sweet Home falling another two tips adrift of the pack.

MoSHBODS_Marg remains one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 120.5 from 162 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 119.5 (74%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, still seven tips behind, on 113.5 (70%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 112.5 (69%).

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2022 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 4PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay ends at Saints by 4 goals.


UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

Collingwood by the barest of margins, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 28 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

Lions by 25 points, and Dees by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

Cats by just 1 point, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay’s final thoughts on the first Saturday games, and some small updates on the Sunday games.

UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games (and the contrarian Head-to-Head Tipster of Essendon in one of those)