2022 - Team Ratings After Round 22

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Geelong retained Top spot on both Rating Systems this week, while Sydney impressed MoSSBODS enough to move into 2nd, thereby aligning the Top 3s under both Systems.

In total, there were nine moves on MoSSBODS and seven on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of the 1st through 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, and 15th through 18th teams. Carlton is the only team for which their rankings differ by more than a single place.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

There were five multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS this week, including Port Adelaide and GWS up 4 spots, Western Bulldogs and Essendon down 4 spots, and Collingwood down 2 spots. There were four multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Port Adelaide and GWS up 4 spots, Essendon down 4 spots, and Western Bulldogs down 3 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.995. The correlation on defence alone is +0.987 and on offence alone +0.995.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 22 rounds of their respective seasons. Bear in mind that any season with fewer than 22 home-and-away rounds will have no teams in this chart.

Geelong and Sydney are now the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

Or, if you prefer a static view of the teams’ combined MoSSBODS Ratings, here’s an updated version of that chart

And here’s the updated MoSHBODS version.

We’re still seeing in both of these charts how the teams are broadly split into a Top 3, a Middle 13, and a Bottom 2, with the Middle 13 maybe now split into eight teams and five teams.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Tigers, and MoSHBODS with Cats, Tigers, and Swans. On defence, we find both with a Top 3 of Cats, Dockers, and Dees.

Both Systems rate the same eight teams as above-average on offence. MoSSBODS rates 11 as above-average on defence, while MoSHBODS rates only nine teams that way.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 3), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at just +0.57, which is down again compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked seven teams this week, but only Port Adelaide by more than two spots, elevating them, Carlton and GWS, and demoting Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Collingwood, and Hawthorn.

In terms of groupings, we now have, according to MARS, roughly:

  • Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions (1,028 to 1,040)

  • Richmond, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Fremantle (1,009 to 1,019)

  • Carlton, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Gold Coast (990 to 1,003)

  • Essendon, GWS, Hawthorn, and Adelaide (980 to 986)

  • West Coast and North Melbourne (940 to 952)

Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda rated just under than mark at 997.3.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just over 100 Rating Points, which is up about 4 Rating Points on last week. Roughly speaking, that means there’s about a 12-goal difference between Geelong and North Melbourne on a neutral venue.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for Collingwood where the team’s ladder position is well above its System Ranking, and for Port Adelaide (and, to a lesser extent, GWS) where the team’s ladder position is well below its System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for nine of the teams, MoSSBODS for two, and MoSHBODS for six.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 11 teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about six teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS about eight teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Adelaide, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs (3 spots) have the widest range of rankings, and that the range is just two spots or less for the remaining 15 teams.

The three Systems now have the same ranking for Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, and West Coast.