2022 - Round 23 : No More Home and Away
/This week includes four games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 1 and 4 places, four more where they are separated by between 6 and 10 places, and one where they are separated by exactly 16 places.
That has resulted in a set of expected margins that includes six sized at under about three goals, two more sized at about three-and-a-half goals, and one sized at about ten-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 20.1 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 23 standards though higher than last year’s figures. It takes the all-season average expected margin to its final value of 18.1 points per game, which is the highest since 2018.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Only Consult The Ladder, Home Sweet Home, the RSMP twins, and MoSSBODS_Marg are offering contrarian tips this week, with the majority of those coming for Carlton in their clash against Collingwood.
The Margin Predictors have double-digit forecast ranges in five games again this week, the largest being 25 points in the Cats v Eagles game, followed by 13 points in the Hawks v Dogs game.
Altogether, Bookie_9 has the most extreme margin forecasts in six games, and Bookie_3 in four games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the largest range of probability estimates is just 12% points for the Hawks v Dogs game. No other game has a double-digit range.
Altogether, MoSHBODS_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the most extreme probability estimates in five games each.
WAGERS
There are five head-to-head bets this week, sized between 0.8% and 2.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets sized between 1.3% and 2.5% of the original Line Fund. The head-to-head bets total just over 6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets total just under 4% of the original Line Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The Ready Reckoner below shows the various ways in which each of those seven wagers might play out:
Geelong carries the most risk, with the difference between a best-case and worst-case outcome for it representing a 3.1c swing in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Hawthorn is next at 2.5c, then Brisbane Lions at 1.4c, and then GWS, Essendon, and St Kilda all at around 0.8c to 0.9c.
In aggregate, the best case is a gain of just over 5c, and the worst case a loss of 4.4c.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
