There are high levels of agreement this week between the MoS twins and the two bookmakers, with MoSSBODS’ average expected Total just a point less than the bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ expected Total just two points higher.
Read MoreThis week includes seven games where the teams are separated on the competition ladder by between 7 and 10 places, and just two where they’re separated by 4 or 5 places.
That’s not translated into a slew of large expected margins, though, with 5 games expected to be won by under 16 points, and the remaining 4 games by under 31 points.
The overall average expected margin is 15.9 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 19 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s and 2019’s 14.1 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.0 points per game, which is looking like it’ll be the highest home-and-away season average since 2018.
Read MoreGeelong retained top spot on both Systems this week, while Sydney took second away from Melbourne.
Further down the ladder there were nine more moves on MoSSBODS and eight more on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th. 11th, and 14th through 18th. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton and Richmond.
Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreIn something of a recurring theme, six opening-market favourites won yet again this week. The only Head-to-Head Tipsters doing better than this par score were the MoS trio, with MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg both bagging 7 from 9, and MoSSBODS_Marg bagging 8 from 9.
That left MoSHBODS_Marg one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 113 from 153 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 112 from 153 (73%), and Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins, now seven tips behind, on 106 from 153 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg is a further tip back on 105 from 153 (69%), which means that player knowledge has resulted in 8 fewer correct tips.
Read MoreMelbourne by just 3 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Hawthorn by 32 points.
MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 12 and Dockers by 4 points.
Pies by 3 and Lions by 2, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has the Dogs by 2 goals now.
MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in four games.
There are, again, some relatively large differences between the MoS and bookmaker Total forecasts this week, and even between the MoS twins themselves.
In the end, MoSSBODS’ average is quite close to the two bookmakers’, and MoSHBODS’ is 4 or 5 points higher.
Read MoreThis week we have:
1 game where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder
4 games where they're between 3 and 5 places apart
4 games where they're 9 or 10 places apart
That’s translated into five games that the TAB Bookmaker expects to have a single digit margin, two more with expected margins around two-and-a-half goals, one with an expected margin around 6.5 goals, and a final one with an expected margin around nine-and-a-half goals,
The overall average expected margin is 15.5 points per game, which is well below average by general Round 18 standards, but slightly higher than last year’s 15.4 points per game. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.1 points per game.
Read MoreGeelong’s win over Melbourne was enough to see them snag top spot from the Dees on both MoS Rating Systems this week, and Sydney’s win over Western Bulldogs was enough to convince MoSHBODS to join MoSSBODS in ratings them third.
Overall, 13 teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, including all but the teams in 3rd, and 15th to 18th. The same number moved places on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 17th and 18th teams. There are only three teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond.
Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreSix opening-market favourites won yet again this week, but some wise contrarian tipping by the MoS trio saw them all bag eight from nine, leaving MoSHBODS_Marg still two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 106 from 144 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 104 from 144 (72%), and Bookie Knows Best. now six tips behind, on 100 from 144 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Carlton by 27 points.
Hawks by 2 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Lions by 21 now, according to MoSHPlay.
Dockers by 2 and Port by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
Some MoSHPlay updates to reflect the latest team lists on the AFL website.
Pies by 9 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
Swans by 11 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay is currently the extreme predictor in only two games.
Cats by two whiskers now, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s the Cats by a whisker, according to MoSHPlay.
At least one of the MoS twins disagrees fairly significantly with the bookmakers this week in every game, despite the fact that their average expected margins are quite close.
Read MoreNot that the quality of a game is always about the ladder-proximity of the opponents, but this week we have:
3 games where the teams are immediately adjacent on the ladder
1 game where they're 2 places apart
1 game where they're 4 places apart
1 game where they're 5 places apart
2 games where they're 12 places apart
1 game where they're 13 places apart
That’s a mixed bag, and the TAB Bookmaker expected margins reflect that, with five of them single-digit, two of them about 2-and-a-half goals, one of them 5-and-a-half goals, and the last of them about 9-and-a-half goals.
The overall average expected margin is 17.1 points per game, which is slightly below average by general Round 17 standards, but the highest since 2019. It lowers the all-season average expected margin to 18.3 points per game.
Read MoreMelbourne, in the end, did just enough in their 29-points and 9 scoring shots victory over Adelaide to nudge their ratings a little higher and retain top spot on both MoS Systems this week.
Geelong now sits directly behind them on both Systems, with Sydney and the Western Bulldogs filling 3rd and 4th in a different order. Sydney, by virtue of recording six more scoring shots than Essendon, actually gained rating points on MoSSBODS this week despite losing on the scoreboard, while on MoSHBODS, which includes an element of scoring shot conversion, the Swans suffered a slight decline.
Read MoreSix opening-market favourites won again this week, and the general lack of contrarian tipping meant that all but Control The Ladder recorded exactly that score. As a result MoSHBODS_Marg still sits two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 98 from 135 (73%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 96 from 135 (71%), and Bookie Knows Best on 94 from 135 (70%).
Read MoreDockers by 14 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.
MoSHPlay finishes at GIANTS by 14 points (sorry to shout)
Tigers by a tick over 8 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its forecasts for tonight’s games.
Swans by 9, according to MoSHPlay (and there’s also some updates to the forecasts for tomorrow’s games).
MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor in three games for now.
Just the smallest of tweaks from MoSHPlay, and we finish at Lions by 11 points.
Lions by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
The MoS twins have some very different opinions than the bookmakers this week on a number games, disagreeing by, on average, about a goal and a half per game. In three games they expect more points - in two of which, rain is expected - and in six games they expect fewer points.
Read MoreWhereas last weekend was all about contests between teams quite proximate on the ladder, this week we have:
1 game where the teams are one spot apart on the ladder (14 v 15)
2 more games where the teams are four or five spots apart on the ladder (5 v 10, and 11 v 7)
3 more games where the teams are seven or eight spots apart on the ladder (1 v 8, 9 v 17, and 4 v 12)
3 more games where the teams are 10 or more spots apart on the ladder (16 v 6, 13 v 1, and 2 v 18)
That’s made for much higher TAB Bookmaker expected margins this week, including 3 of five goals or more. Only one game is expected to finish with a single-digit margin.
The overall average expected margin is 23,3 points per game, which is roughly average by general Round 16 standards, but nonetheless the highest since 2018. It raises the all-season average expected margin to 18.4 points per game.
Read MoreWe have new number ones on both Systems for the second time in two weeks, as Melbourne’s emphatic defeat of Brisbane Lions has seen them retake that mantle.
Overall, eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 12 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about the ranking of the 1st, 4th, 8th through 12th, and 17th and 18th teams. There are only two teams, however, where they differ in their rankings by more than two places: Essendon and GWS.
Eleven teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and MoSHBODS,.
Read MoreSix opening-market favourites won this week, but most of the MoS models knew better, in particular MoSHBODS_Marg, whose eight from nine performance was enough to see it kick two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, and now on 92 from 126 (73%). MoSSBODS_Marg sits in second place on 90 from 126 (71%), ahead of Bookie Knows Best on 88 from 126 (70%).
Read MorePort Adelaide by 9 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.
MoSHPlay has it as just a two goal Pies win.
Adelaide by 19, according to MoSHPlay.
Swans by 16, according to MoSHPlay.
Essendon by 22, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s the Dogs by just over 4 goals, if you trust MoSHPlay (and many, wisely, don’t)
At this point, MoSHPlay is the most extreme forecaster in only two games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 11 points.
It’s Melbourne by 2 goals, according to MoSHPlay.
MAFL is a website for ...
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2023, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
