2022 - Round 12 : Quieter Round

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We enter my least-favourite portion of the season, where essentially two rounds of football are played out over three weeks, just as the competition seemed to have reached an inflexion point.

The six games we have been offered include three that are expected to be won by 3-and-a-half goals or more, one that is expected to be won by about two goals, and just two that are expected to be won by about a goal or less.

Altogether that makes for an average expected margin of 20.5 points per game, which is a little high in the context of recent Round 12s, and especially so when compared to last year’s 11.8 points per game.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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Eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 13 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 6th, 7th, 13th and 16th through 18th, but disagreeing by no more than two places about no team.

Melbourne remains first on both Systems, while MoSSBODS has Geelong in second and Western Bulldogs in third and MoSHBODS has Western Bulldogs in second and Geelong in third.

The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 11 : MoSHPlay

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SUNDAY 4PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay lands on Port Adelaide by 33 points to finish the round.

SUNDAY 2:30PM UPDATE

Now it’s Carlton by 5 points, according to MoSHPlay.

SUNDAY 12:30PM UPDATE

Saints by 40 points, according to MoSHPlay.

SATURDAY 1PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay has finished at Lions by 32 points, and Geelong by 36 points.

FRIDAY 7:30PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay has finished at Swans by 9 points.

THURSDAY 7PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay is, at this stage, the most-extreme forecaster in four games this week, including a contrarian tip for Hawthorn over Gold Coast.

2022 - Round 11 : Even Less Surprising

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Last weekend, the average expected victory margin was just under 27 points per game, and the actual average victory margin was 29 points per game. This weekend, the expected average is slightly higher at 27.6 points per game, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if we wake up on Monday morning having seen a fairly similar set of results. Or not, of course.

Six of the contests this week carry handicaps of between 28.5 and 46.5 points, and only two carry single-digit handicaps. As a consequence we have the highest single-round average expected margin for 2022 so far, and the highest for a Round 11 since 2018.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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Eleven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and ten did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th, 12th, 17th and 18th though disagreeing by no more than two places about only Carlton (4 places) and Richmond (3 places).

Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 10 Results - Back in Black

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It was another week where the Head-to_Head Tipsters were at sixes and sevens, with five of them recording 6 from 9 results, and four of them 7 from 9. MoSSBODS_Marg was, again, one of the sixes, and MoSHBODS_Marg of the sevens, which allowed MoSHBODS_Marg to draw level with MoSSBODS_Marg on 63 from 90 (70%), one tip ahead of Bookie Knows Best, and two ahead of the RSMP twins.

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2022 - Round 10 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY

Dockers by 26 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.


UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Lions by 12 points.

UPDATE 1:30PM SUNDAY

Still the Giants, according to MoSHPlay, but now by only 32 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 20 points and Richmond by 16 points.


UPDATE 1:20PM SATURDAY

… and it’s Dogs by 12 points, according to MoSHPlay.

(Two games starting at the same time - who knew?)

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

Cats by 14 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Swans by 1 point.

UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay has the following forecasts, assuming that the final named teams are either:

  • The listed 22 plus the highest-rated Emergency, or

  • The listed 18 plus the five highest-rated Interchange

2022 - Round 10 : Probably Not Surprising

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If you’re a fan of close contests, you might want to look elsewhere this weekend, as only one of the nine contests is expected by the TAB bookmaker to be won by less than three goals.

Five of the contests carry handicaps of between 23.5 and a whopping 70.5 points, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just under 27 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 10 since 2016.

Only the Friday game between the Blues and the Swans looks set to be anything but a comfortable win for the favourite.

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2022 - Team Ratings After Round 9

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A lot more stability in the team rankings this week, as Just seven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and the same number moved places on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing about which teams should be in 1st and 2nd, 10th and 13th, and 15th through 18th.Ten teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and nine did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 12th, 15th and 16th though disagreeing by no more than two places about the remaining 13 teams.

Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS, and 10 teams on MoSHBODS.

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2022 - Round 9 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay still favours the Giants, but now by only 7 points.

UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY

Fremantle by 7 points is MoSHPlay’s final opinion.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes with the Cats winning by 4 points.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay now has the Tigers by 9 points.

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay likes the Dogs even more now and is tipping them to win by 9 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay, for now, is the most extreme Margin Predictor in only two games, probably most notably in the GWS v Geelong game, where it has the Giants winning by 10 points.

2022 - Round 9 : Anchors, Away

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In what shapes as a challenging round for home team crowds, the TAB Bookmaker has installed away team favourites in eight of the nine games.

All but two of those favourites are expected to win by 10 points or more, and three of them by more than four goals, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just over 21 points per game, which is both the second-highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 9 since 2018.

And, if the current market trends are anything to go by, Round 9 might be even less competitive than these numbers would imply, since the latest average expected margin is about half a point a game higher.

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2022 - Round 8 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE 12:45PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 12 points.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

For the second time today, MoSHPlay has switched teams with the announcement of the final lists, this time to the Hawks by 1 point.

(That last one didn’t go so well …)

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Cats by just 1 point now, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has reconsidered its opinion about the Tigers v Pies clash now that the final teams are in, and has opted for the Pies by a whisker.

UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has the Lions by 77 points (and is sticking with Port by 11 points).

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor in just two games - the first and last of the round. We’re still waiting for details of the teams in the Lions v Eagles game.