2022 - Team Ratings After Round 10

/

Eleven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and ten did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th, 12th, 17th and 18th though disagreeing by no more than two places about only Carlton (4 places) and Richmond (3 places).

Melbourne and Geelong remain first and second, respectively, on both Systems.

Eleven teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.

Altogether, there were five multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, including Western Bulldogs up 5 spots, Fremantle down 4 spots, and Carlton up 3 spots. There were only three multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Western Bulldogs up 3 spots, Fremantle down 2 spots, and Richmond up 2 spots.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9914. The correlation on defence alone is +0.984 and on offence alone +0.992.

To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after ten rounds of their respective seasons.

Melbourne remains in the top decile of ultimate Grand Finalists and are on the brink of becoming one of the all-time highest-rated teams. while Geelong remains the only other team rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final. West Coast and North Melbourne continue to flirt with infamy in a different way: as the lowest-ever offensively-rated teams.

The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dees, Cats, and Blues, and MoSHBODS with Dees, Lions, and Cats. On defence, we find both Systems still with a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Cats.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.72.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked only four teams this week, swapping Richmond and Port Adelaide in 6th and 8th, and GWS and Gold Coast in 12th and 14th. Both the Top 5 and Bottom 4 were left unchanged.

MARS continues to agree with the MoS twins about Melbourne being the top-ranked side, but shows little agreement about most of the remaining teams.

In terms of groupings, we now have, roughly:

  • Melbourne

  • Brisbane Lions

  • Geelong

  • Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Richmond, St Kilda, Port Adelaide

  • Fremantle, Carlton

  • Collingwood

  • GWS, Hawthorn, Gold Coast

  • Essendon, Adelaide

  • West Coast, North Melbourne

Ten teams are now rated as better-than-average by MARS, with only Collingwood also Rated higher than 993.

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 82 Rating Points, which is up by about 4 Rating Points compared to last week.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Fremantle and Carlton, where the teams’ ladder positions are well above their System Ranking, and for Western Bulldogs and Geelong, where the teams’ ladder positions are well below their System Rankings.

MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 12 of the teams, while MoSSBODS now has it for only seven teams.

MoSHBODS, meantime, has the outright most-extreme ranking for only three teams.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of just eight teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about four teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS also about four teams.

If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Carlton and Richmond (4 spots) have the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for all but five teams.

The three Systems have the same ranking for Collingwood and Melbourne.