2022 - Round 10 : Probably Not Surprising

/

If you’re a fan of close contests, you might want to look elsewhere this weekend, as only one of the nine contests is expected by the TAB bookmaker to be won by less than three goals.

Five of the contests carry handicaps of between 23.5 and a whopping 70.5 points, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just under 27 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 10 since 2016.

Only the Friday game between the Blues and the Swans looks set to be anything but a comfortable win for the favourite.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

That comfort is reflected in the head-to-head tips this week where we find only six contrarian forecasts with half of those coming from Home Sweet Home. The other three come from the RSMP twins and MoSSBODS_Marg in the Friday game.

This week there are five games where the Margin Predictors have combined to deliver double-digit forecast ranges, most notably in the North Melbourne v Melbourne game where RSMP_Simple’s 46-point forecast defines one end, and Bookie_3’s 73-point forecast defines the other. There’s also an 18-point range in the Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions game where Bookie_3 again defines one end, but MoSSBODS_Marg defines the other.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Marg, Bookie_3, and RSMP_Simple have the most extreme margin forecasts in four games this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, including the two games listed above where the ranges are 14% points and 15% points respectively.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games this week, and Bookie_OE and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

This week is a much quieter fro Investors, with just two head-to-head, and three line wagers.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Individually, the head-to-head bets range in size from 0.7% to 0.9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets range in size from 1% to 2.1% of the original Line Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just under 4c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 3c.

Hawthorn carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Hawthorn win and a Hawthorn loss by 26 points or more representing a 3.4c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Gold Coast and Essendon both representing a potential swing of 1.3c, and Adelaide representing a potential swing of 0.9c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.