2022 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/Eight teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and 13 did the same on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems agreeing only about which teams should be in 1st, 6th, 7th, 13th and 16th through 18th, but disagreeing by no more than two places about no team.
Melbourne remains first on both Systems, while MoSSBODS has Geelong in second and Western Bulldogs in third and MoSHBODS has Western Bulldogs in second and Geelong in third.
The same twelve teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
Altogether, there were four multiple-spot movers on MoSSBODS, including Fremantle up 4 spots, Adelaide up 2 spots, St Kilda down 4 spots, and Carlton down 2 spots. There were also four multiple-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Fremantle up 3 spots, Western Bulldogs up 2 spots, Gold Coast up 2 shots, and Port Adelaide down 2 spots.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings remains very high, and now stands at +0.9931. The correlation on defence alone is +0.984 and on offence alone +0.993.
To provide some historical context to the teams’ current Ratings, the chart below shows the Ratings of selected teams from V/AFL history after 11 rounds of their respective seasons.
Melbourne is no longer in the top decile of ultimate Grand Finalists. and joins Geelong as the only teams rated higher at this point in the season than 50% of the teams in history that subsequently made the Grand Final. West Coast remains amongst the lowest-ever offensively-rated teams.
The animation below maps the path that each 2022 team has followed to reach its current Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence, we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Dees, Dogs and Cats, and MoSHBODS with Lions, Dogs and Tigers. On defence, we find both Systems with a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees and Cats.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.71.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked seven teams this week, but left the Top 3 and Bottom 4 left unchanged. The only multiple-spot mover was Gold Coast, who climbed two spots.
MARS continues to agree with the MoS twins about Melbourne being the top-ranked side, but continues to show little agreement about most of the remaining teams.
In terms of groupings, we now have, roughly:
Melbourne and Brisbane Lions
Geelong and Western Bulldogs
Sydney, St Kilda, Richmond, Port Adelaide, and Fremantle
Carlton
Collingwood, Gold Coast, and GWS,
Hawthorn and Essendon
Adelaide
West Coast, North Melbourne
Ten teams are rated as better-than-average by MARS, with only Collingwood and Gold Coast also Rated higher than 993.
The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 78 Rating Points, which is down by about 4 Rating Points compared to last week.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we still find relatively large differences for a few teams, the largest being for Carlton, where the team’s ladder positions are well above its System Ranking, and for Western Bulldogs, where the team’s ladder position is well below its System Rankings.
MARS currently has the outright most-extreme ranking for 11 of the teams, while MoSSBODS still has it for only seven teams.
MoSHBODS, meantime, has the outright most-extreme ranking for only four teams.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of just seven teams, MoSHBODS and MARS about five teams, and MoSSBODS and MARS also about five teams.
If we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that Fremantle (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that the range is just two spots or less for all but three teams.
The three Systems have the same ranking for GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda.
