2022 - Round 11 : Even Less Surprising

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Last weekend, the average expected victory margin was just under 27 points per game, and the actual average victory margin was 29 points per game. This weekend, the expected average is slightly higher at 27.6 points per game, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if we wake up on Monday morning having seen a fairly similar set of results. Or not, of course.

Six of the contests this week carry handicaps of between 28.5 and 46.5 points, and only two carry single-digit handicaps. As a consequence we have the highest single-round average expected margin for 2022 so far, and the highest for a Round 11 since 2018.

We’d best not be hoping for too much contrarianism in the head-to-head tips then, I suppose.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Indeed, we should not. The only support for underdogs this week comes from Home Sweet Home, and only in two games even from it. It’s possible, though, that MoSHPlay might ultimately come down favouring the Hawks against the Suns, but that’s about it.

There are still, though, six games where the Margin Predictors have combined to deliver double-digit forecast ranges, most notably in the West Coast v Western Bulldogs game where RSMP_Weighted’s 30-point forecast defines one end, and Bookie_3’s 50-point forecast defines the other. There’s also an 18-point range in the Port Adelaide v Essendon game where ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Marg define the extremes.

Altogether, Bookie_3 has the most extreme margin forecasts in four games this week, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Weighted have it in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is just one game with a double-digit percentage point probability estimate range: the Pies v Blues game where it is 13% points.

Altogether, MoSSBODS_Prob, MoSHBODS_Prob, Bookie_LPSO, and Bookie_OE have the most extreme probability estimates in four games each this week.

WAGERS

This week is an even quieter one for Investors, with just two head-to-head and a single line wager.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The head-to-head bets are sized 0.3% and 1.1% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bet is 0.3% of the original Line Fund.

We have then:

  • West Coast win / draw / loss: +0.6c / +0.3c / -0.1c

  • Collingwood win / draw / loss: +0.6c / +0.1c / -0.3c

  • Geelong wins by 42+ / otherwise: +0.2c / -0.2c

So, best case, a 1.4c gain, and worst case a 0.6c loss.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.