2022 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins are this week forecasting generally similar scores to the bookmakers, with their average coming in at about 164 to 165 points per game.

There is, though, quite a bit of difference in the choice of highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Sydney v Richmond

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions v GWS

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS and TAB: Melbourne v Fremantle

  • Sportsbet: Port Adelaide v Essendon

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: Geelong

  • MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: St Kilda

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Fremantle

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Essendon

WAGERS

Three wagers again this week, two unders and one overs, after a fourth wager, that would have been another overs bet, was declined based on the weather forecast.

The estimated overlays for the wagers range from 10 to 17 points (the larger thanks to a very different Total being offered by Sportsbet).

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 10 was an excellent one for MoSHBODS, as it recorded the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals. The Sportsbet bookmaker was best for Game Margins.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS best for Home Team Scores and, now, Game Totals, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS went 1 and 0 on its under wagers with the TAB, 0 and 1 on its overs wagers with the TAB, and 1 and 0 on its overs wagers with Sportsbet, moving it to a 16 and 7 record for the season with the TAB, and a 3 and 2 with Sportbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 51 from 90 (57%) for the season, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 50 from 90 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS, meantime, recorded a 6 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 54 from 90 (60%) for the season against them, and also a 6 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 49 from 90 (54%) for the season against them.

Those records are all looking a lot better than they did a few rounds ago.