2021 - Team Ratings After Round 19

/

With the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.

Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.

Read More

2021 - Round 19 : Who Knows?

/

It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.

In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.

Read More

2021 - Team Ratings After Round 18

/

More dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).

All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.

Read More

2021 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

/

Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.

Read More

2021 - Team Ratings After Round 17

/

Despite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).

Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.

Read More

2021 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay Update

/

UPDATE 7PM MOnDAY

Eagles by 26 according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 3:30PM SunDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to the Pies.

UPDATE 2:45PM SunDAY

Dogs by 24 now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE Noon SUNDAY

MoSHPlay now has the Giants - sorry, GIANTS - by only 13 points

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

Just the tiniest of adjustments for the Blues v Cats game. Now Cats by 20.

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

Fremantle by 9 points now, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is the most extreme margin forecaster in just two games, and the most extreme probability estimator in four games.

UPDATE 11:45PM WEDNESDAY

Port Adelaide by 3, according to MoSHPlay

2021 - Round 17 : Eureka (Again)

/

After another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.

The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.

Read More

2021 - Team Ratings After Round 16

/

Some mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.

At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.

Read More

2021 - Round 16 Results - Good Enough

/

Overall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.

Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.

Read More