2021 - Round 17 : Eureka (Again)
/After another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.
The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Across the Head-to-Head Tipsters, we’re seeing most contrarian tips in the Port Adelaide v Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions v St Kilda games with, so far, the only other tips of this kind coming from Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, for the eight games where we’ve a full set of forecasts, MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme Predictor in five, Bookie_3 in four, and ENS_Linear also in four.
And looking finally at the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, MoSSBODS_Prob stands out as it has the most extreme probability estimates in all eight games. Bookie_LPSO has next most at four.
WAGERS
As it turns out, MoSSBODS’ somewhat extreme opinions have only been different enough from the bookmakers’ to result in three line bets, none of them bigger than 2.5% of the original Line Fund.
A far bigger wager has come from MoSHBODS’ confidence in the Dogs, which has produced a bet of just over 6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, the largest such wager of the season so far and eclipsing the successful 5.6% wager on Richmond in Round 11.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
