2021 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders

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It’s something more of a traditional round this week, with the MoS twins’ all-game expected total score coming in about four to five points lower than the bookmakers’.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Carlton v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v Collingwood

  • Bookmakers: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Carlton

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Gold Coast

WAGERS

Investors have two unders wagers this week, one with the TAB, and one with Sportsbet.

The estimated overlays for the two wager are about a squeaky 7 points in one, and a comfortable 16 points in the other.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 18 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Totals, the TAB do the same for Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins and Away Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores and Game Totals, MoSHBODS with the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet with the best season-long performance on Game Margins.

MoSSBODS won its lone overs wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 25 and 24 record with them, and lost its lone unders wager with Sportsbet, leaving it with a 7 and 6 record with them.

Overall, MoSSBODS finished on the right side of the Totals in 6 games against the TAB and Sportsbet, leaving it at 82 from 153 (54%) against the TAB, and 79 from 153 (52%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS went 7 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet to move to 83 from 153 (54%) against the TAB, and 82 from 153 (54%) against Sportsbet.