All but one of this week’s eight games is expected to be won by less than about 3 goals, Thursday’s Adelaide v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is 5.1 from 8 and the average expected margin is only 12.8 points per game.
Read MoreThere was a little less volatility this week, as MoSSBODS reranked just 10 teams, and MoSHBODS only eight, leaving them both with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, and Brisbane Lions.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Carlton up 2 into 3rd, Melbourne down 3 into 7th, and Geelong down 2 into 10th) and only two did likewise on MoSHBODS (Carlton up 3 into 3rd, and Melbourne down 5 into 9th).
Ratings compression remains on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 10th separated by only just over 15 points.
Read MoreIn was a bad week for favourites, with just two claiming victory, allowing the targetted Head-to-Head Tipster contrarians to close the gap on Bookie Knows Best, which finds itself now tied with ENS_Linear, MoSHPlay_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 68.5 from 106 (65%), and just one tip ahead of the RSMP twins
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at exactly 3 from 7, which took the season-long figure to 66.6 from 106 (63%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 14 points and has a new preliminary view on the final game of the round.
MoSHPlay finishes at Geelong by 32 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at St KIlda by 4 points.
MoSHPlay has flipped to Crows by 0.3 points.
MoSHPlay’s views on the rest of Round 12.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is a non-controversial Port Adelaide by a goal.
There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level again this week but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly higher Totals than the bookmakers, though still lower than the season-to-date average of 166.2 points per game.
Read MoreAll but one of this week’s seven games (yes, it’s another bye round!) is expected to be won by less than 14 points, the Geelong v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is just 4.3 from 7 and the average expected margin is only 10.2 points per game.
Read MoreThere really is no complete hierarchy of team ratings emerging as we see 12 teams changing places again on MoSSBODS and 11 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
This week, however, the moves were, on average, smaller, with the only multi-spot movers on both Systems being:
Brisbane Lions: down two places on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
GWS: up two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS
At the end of it all, both Systems have the same Top 4 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Melbourne.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 3.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 14 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 16 points.
Read MoreSix early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and one other bagged two, which defined the ceiling for scores this weekend. Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, and the RSMP twins were the only Head-to-Head Tipsters recording that maximum, which left Bookie Knows Best in 1st place on the Leaderboard, one tip clear of ENS_Linear, and a further tip clear of the MoS family and the RSMP pair.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 63.6 from 99 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s finishes at Crows by 26 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 25 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Lions by 9 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Essendon by 26 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Cats by 15 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Port Adelaide by 43 points and Carlton by 12 points.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Fremantle by 7 points (and has some new preliminary views on the Sunday games).
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games in Round 11.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Dogs by 4 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Dogs by 3 points.
There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals this week.
Read MoreYep - another week of huge levels of re-ranking without much change in the underlying ratings as 12 teams change places on MoSSBODS and 11 teams change places on MoSHBODS.
The multi-spot movers on both Systems were:
Western Bulldogs: up six places on both Systems
Brisbane Lions: up two places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS
Melbourne: down two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS
Geelong: down three places on both Systems
GWS: down three places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Western Bulldogs, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 15 points.
Read MoreThis round looks quite a bit like last week, with three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, three more expected to be won by about 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 5 and 7 goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.4 from 9 and the average expected margin is 21.3 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is sizeable again at 6.8 places per game. In five of the games the teams are separated on the ladder by 4 or fewer places, but we also have 2nd v 17th, 4th v 18th, and 1st v 11th.
Read MoreOnly five early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, but some contrarian tipping allowed scores as high as seven for Home Sweet Home, and sixes for the RSMP twins, Consult the Ladder, and MoSSBODS_Marg. The Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who now maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and all three of the MoS family.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 5.7 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 57.8 from 90 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Dees by 31 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 27 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points and Lions by 44 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 14 points (and also has some new views on the Sunday games with the further squad announcements).
MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the remaining games of the round.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 7 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is the Cats by 5 points.
The differences between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts again tend to be small again this week but with MoS totals tending a little lower.
Read MoreIt was another week of ranking turmoil, with 10 teams changing places on MoSSBODS (all but one of them in the top half) and 12 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
There was only one multi-spot mover on MoSSBODS, however (Melbourne up 2 into 3rd), but four multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Collingwood up 3 into 3rd and Geelong down 3 into 4th.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Collingwood, Sydney, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Melbourne, and Collingwood.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.
Read MoreThis round looks nothing like the last few, with only three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, two more expected to be won by between about 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and the remaining four expected to be won by between about 4-and-a-half and 7-and-a-half goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.5 from 9 and the average expected margin is 22.6 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a sizeable 7.7, including 3rd v 18th and 4th v 16th. In no contest are the participants separated by fewer than 4 spots on the ladder, and only one game involves teams both from the Top 8: 1st v 7th.
Read MoreOnly four early-week favourites bagged the four points this week, and another snagged a draw, which kept accuracy levels generally low, the exception being MoSSBODS_Marg’s 6.5 from 8, which dragged it into a share of fourth on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. That Leaderboard is still headed by Bookie Knows Best, who maintains a one tip lead over ENS_Linear and MoSHPlay_Marg.
The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 4.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 52.1 from 81 (64%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Crows by a goal.
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 6 goals.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 16 points and Suns by 33 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Giants by 7 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Saints by a point.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views of the remaining games of the round.
MoSHPlay’s finishes at Dees by 4 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dees by 1 point.
With the exception of the Hawks v Saints game, there’s no more than about a goal’s difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts this week. Overall, the twins' averages come in just under the bookmakers’.
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2023, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
