2024 - Round 10 : Onwards
/This round looks nothing like the last few, with only three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, two more expected to be won by between about 3 and 3-and-a-half goals, and the remaining four expected to be won by between about 4-and-a-half and 7-and-a-half goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.5 from 9 and the average expected margin is 22.6 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a sizeable 7.7, including 3rd v 18th and 4th v 16th. In no contest are the participants separated by fewer than 4 spots on the ladder, and only one game involves teams both from the Top 8: 1st v 7th.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Only one game sees contrarian forecasting this week from anyone other than Home Sweet Home: the Saints v Freo clash where Consult the Ladder, the RSMP twins, and MoSSBODS_Marg have all opted for the Dockers, the latter three very marginally.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 17 points in the Dons v Roos game, 16 points in the Pies v Crows game, and 14 points in the Eagles v Dees game.
MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 have Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Pies v Crows (12% points) and Swans v Blues (10% points).
MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob in five, and Bookie_LPSO in four.
WAGERS
After a far more satisfactory set of results in Round 9, the models have returned to Investors with six head-to-head bets totalling just under 9% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and four line bets totalling just under 10% of the Line Fund, as set out below.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is spread across 8 teams this week, with Collingwood carrying by far the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between a Pies win by 22 points or more and any other result represents a swing of 6.1c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Western Bulldogs (3.6%), Brisbane Lions (2.3%), Hawthorn (2.2%), North Melbourne (2%), West Coast (1.6%), Sydney (1.0%), and then Geelong (0.9%).
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 11c, while a worst case set would snip 8.5c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
