2024 - Team Ratings After Round 9
/It was another week of ranking turmoil, with 10 teams changing places on MoSSBODS (all but one of them in the top half) and 12 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
There was only one multi-spot mover on MoSSBODS, however (Melbourne up 2 into 3rd), but four multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS, including Collingwood up 3 into 3rd and Geelong down 3 into 4th.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Collingwood, Sydney, and Melbourne, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Melbourne, and Collingwood.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 10th are separated by only 15 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9934 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.54 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Swans, Power, and Blues, and MoSHBODS with Swans, Giants, and Blues. On defence both MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dees, Pies, and Lions while MoSHBODS has Dees, Lions, and Dockers.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both now have 9 teams rated as above average on offence. MoSSBODS also has 14 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has only 12.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 9.
There remains no standout teams so far this season with only Sydney and Collingwood in even the top half of teams that went on to play in the Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, 9 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.64, which is considerably higher than last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked an unusually high 12 teams this week, leaving Sydney in 1st, but switching Melbourne into 2nd above Geelong.
The teams that moved by more a single spot were Western Bulldogs, up 4 into 6th, Collingwood, up 3 into 4th, and Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle, all down 2 spots.
As we’ve seen for a while now, there is considerable Rating compression on MARS too, and now we have under 18 Rating Points separating 1st from 9th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.7 points, so this gap equates to about 13 points.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with St Kilda and Gold Coast rated just below 1,000.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Collingwood and Brisbane Lions
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 12, ahead of MoSSBODS with 9. MoSHBODS has a season low 0.
MARS remains particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 5 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS only 2, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only five teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also two teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
