2024 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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Yep - another week of huge levels of re-ranking without much change in the underlying ratings as 12 teams change places on MoSSBODS and 11 teams change places on MoSHBODS.

The multi-spot movers on both Systems were:

  • Western Bulldogs: up six places on both Systems

  • Brisbane Lions: up two places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS

  • Melbourne: down two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS

  • Geelong: down three places on both Systems

  • GWS: down three places on MoSSBODS and four places on MoSHBODS

At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Sydney, Collingwood, and Western Bulldogs, and MoSHBODS’ is Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.5 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 15 points.

Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9947 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.594 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Power, and Blues, and MoSHBODS now with Swans, Cats, and Dogs. On defence both have a Top 3 of Dees, Dockers, and Lions.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still have 9 teams rated as above average on offence. MoSSBODS also has 13 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has only 10.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 10.

The evenness of the competition and the related mediocrity of the 2024 teams is laid bare in this chart.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.65, which is up by a tick compared to last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 10 teams this week, leaving Sydney in 1st, but elevating Brisbane Lions 6 places into 2nd ahead of Melbourne.

The four other teams that moved by more a single spot were Western Bulldogs, up 2 into 4th, Geelong, down 3 into 6th, GWS down 2 spots into 7th, and Carlton down 2 spots into 9th..

As we’ve continued to see here too, there is considerable Rating compression on MARS too, and now we have only 13 Rating Points separating 2nd from 12th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.75 to 0.8 points, so this gap equates to about 10 points.

There are now 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and (maybe) GWS

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions and (maybe) Carlton

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 14, ahead of MoSSBODS with 6. and MoSHBODS with just 1.

MARS remains particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide, Carlton, and GWS.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 4 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS only 3, but MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 10 teams.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS (4 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only four teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.

There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and Sydney.