2024 - Round 11 : It's Complicated

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This round looks quite a bit like last week, with three games expected to be won by less than 2 goals, three more expected to be won by about 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 5 and 7 goals. The expected number of favourite wins is 6.4 from 9 and the average expected margin is 21.3 points per game.

Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is sizeable again at 6.8 places per game. In five of the games the teams are separated on the ladder by 4 or fewer places, but we also have 2nd v 17th, 4th v 18th, and 1st v 11th.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are six games this week with contrarian head-to-head forecasts. Home Sweet Home is contrarian in five games, Consult the Ladder in one (and is the sole forecaster tipping Gold Coast), MoSSBODS_Marg in one, and MoSHBODS_Marg in two.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 33 points in the Tigers v Dons game, 20 points in the Roos v Power game, 19 points in the Dogs v Swans game, and 17 points in the Crows v Eagles game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are six games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dogs v Swans (19% points), Tigers v Dons (18% points), and Cats v Giants and Crows v Eagles (11% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_RE have Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

It’s been quite the drama trying to get all the action we wanted this week. In the end, we managed to get everything on at the prices we first saw, except in the case of Richmond. There we wanted to get a tiny 2.5% of the Head-to-Head Fund on at $9.50 but eventualy had to settle for 0.75% at $9.50 and 1,8% at $8.50 (for a blended price of $8.80).

We also wanted 9.5% of the Line Fund at +44.5 points and $1.90 but finished with:

  • 3.9% at +44.5 and $1.90

  • 0.6% at +43.5 and $1.90

  • 0.6% at +42.5 and $1.90

  • 2.7% at +41.5 and $1.90

When last I checked, Sportsbet were still at +44.5 but will offer no more of it to us, and the TAB were at +38.5, which we want no part of.

So, in the end, Investors have 8 head-to-head bets totalling almost 16% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 6 line bets totalling just over 24% of the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s odd-looking Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is again spread across 8 teams this week, but with Richmond carrying by far the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between a Tigers win and a loss by 45 points or more represents a swing of 15.2c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Western Bulldogs (9.5%), Geelong (6.2%), West Coast (4.3%), Hawthorn (3.9%), Gold Coast (2.7%), Fremantle (1.6%), and then North Melbourne (0.5%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by over 24c, while a worst case set would snip almost 20c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.