Four Round 3 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, two more by less than 4 goals, and two more by about 6 to 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is about 22.5 points per game. Home teams are favourites in half of the contests.
Read MoreThe bookmakers, on the whole, did an excellent job this week, as 6 of the 8 early-week favourites were victorious, which saw Bookie Knows Best claim top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard, though just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 14.8 from 21 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points
MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points
It’s another week where all four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the all-game average Total, but where there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read MoreFive Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.
Read MoreI can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.
If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.
In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.
Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has flipped and gone the Lions by 1 point
It’s Port by 46 points, accoriding to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay ends with it as Dees by 13 pointsU
MoSHPlay ends with it as Suns by 9 points
MoSHPlay ends with at Cats by 2 goals
MoSHPlay ends with the Giants by 53 points (assuming Haynes and Shiels are the subs)
MoSHPlay ends at the underdog Hawks by 10 points
MoSHPlay ends at the Pies by 14 points (subject to confirmation that the subs are Macrae and Wicks)
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thinking on the remaining games in the round, pending team finalisations.
MoSHPlay finishes by forecasting that the Blues will win by 7 points (subject to Mansell being conformed as the sub for the Tigers)
MoSHPlay is a little less confident about the home team’s chance in the Thursday night game (although this might change when the final teams are named) and currently has the Blues winning by only 8 points
All four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the nine-game average Total, but there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read MoreSix Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.
Read MoreThe bookmakers did a reasonable job of tipping winners this week, missing out only in the Lions v Blues game and even there only by a point.
Home Sweet Home and the MoS trio shared top honours with BKB on Head-to-Head Tipping, whilst Consult The Ladder finished with a startling 0 from 4.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.3 from 4, which took the all-season accuracy to just over 58%.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 15 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 14 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s early thoughts on the remaining games of the round (assuming that the average quality of the final 23s will be the same as the average quality of the currently named squads including the Interchanges but not the Emergencies).
MoSHPlay has ended at Swans by 9 points
In this week’s amuse-bouche round, MoSSBODS is forecasting, on average, slightly higher scores than the bookmakers, while MoSHBODS is forecasting slightly lower scores.
Read MoreWelcome back
The men’s 2024 AFL season starts off weirdly in at least three ways: there are only four games in the opening round, Carlton and Richmond don’t face one another, and the round is numbered 0.
There are, at this stage, four home team favourites, including the Giants over the 2023 Premiers by about half a goal. The strongest of the favourites are the Lions who are currently expected to defeat the Blues by just over 3 goals.
Read MoreThe men’s 2024 version of MoS will be much the same as the men’s 2023 edition, especially on the forecasting front.
You will again see somewhere on the site weekly posts predicitng results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals using a technique I railed against for many years.
The main changes are decribed in the sections that follow.
Read MoreHonours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers this week in the sole game that we had:
Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)
Home Team Scores: TAB
Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB
The season-long round win tallies finish at:
Game Margins: TAB (9.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)
Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6)
Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (9.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)
The Giants, as we suspected, have finished the season atop both Systems, though only by 0.4 SS on MoSSBODS. On MoSHBODS, the lead is a litttle larger at 7.6 points per game.
The only moves on the MoSSBODS rankings were Collingwood up 4 places into 4th, Brisbane Lions down 2 places into 6th, and Port Adelaide and Fremantle down 1 spot each into 7th and 8th. On MoSHBODS we had Adelaide up 1 spot into 3rd, Collingwood up 1 into 5th, Sydney down 1 into 6th, and Brisbane Lions down 1 into 4th.
Ten teams finish the season rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only just under 20 points.
It’s been, as we thought fairly early on - a very even competition with no stand out teams. By way of comparison, last year Geelong finished rated +12.1 by MoSSBODS and +40.8 by MoSHBODS. On MoSSBODS, there were five more teams rated +3 or better, and on MoSHBODS there were five more teams rated +12 or better.
Read MoreCollingwood clung on to ensure that Minor Premiers now have a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals since 2000, as shown in the table at right. They still, however, have a nett losing record against teams finishing 2nd in the home-and-away season.
In percentage terms, teams from 7th (1-0; 100%) and from 3rd (7-5; 58%) now have the best records, and teams from 4th, 5th and 6th (all 0-1; 0%) have the worst.
Read MoreMoSHPlay is currently at Pies by a goal
The MoS twins fancy that the Grand Final will be lower scoring than do the bookmakers, and by as much as 2 goals.
Read MoreIt’s 1st v 2nd in the Grand Final, a matchup that has only occurred 7 times since 2000, and that hasn’t been a happy pairing for Minor Premiers who’ve won only 2 of those 7.
But this year is this year and has no obligation to follow trend, and the bookmakers have the Pies as about 5-point favourites.urites.
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