2024 - Round 1 Results - Still Mostly Fine
/I can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.
If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.
In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.
Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).
Margin prediction was very strong this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from MoSHBODS_Marg’s 18.8 to Bookie_3’s 20.2 points per game, and an all-Predictor average of 18.1 points per game.
Log probability scores were all positive and similar, but slightly best for Bookie_LPSO. It, however, is only in 3rd, behind MoSHBODS_Prob and MoSHPlay_Prob.
WAGERING
The Hawk’s loss on Saturday had seemingly set Investors up for a red-ink weekend, but a series of results after that game - mostly Fremantle’s win over Brisbane Lions - left them with probably the biggest single round win in MoS history.
The Overs/Unders Fund made a loss, and the Head-to-Head Fund only a small profit, but the Line Fund jumoed by almost 10c, which meant that the Combined Portfolio finished up by almost 6c. It is now up by almost 9c, that from a 30% ROT on a 0.29 turn.
