2023 - Team Ratings After Round 27

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The Giants, barring a huge Lions win in the Grand Final, will finish the season ranked 1st on both MoS Systems, despite dropping 0.3 SS of Rating on MoSSBODS this week.

The only moves on the rankings were, on MoSSBODS, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions switching 3rd and 4th, and Carlton and Western Bulldogs switching 9th and 10th and, on MoSHBODS, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions switching 2nd and 3rd.

Ten teams are now rated above-average on MoSSBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 4.7 SS, which equates to about 17 points. Twelve teams are rated above-average on MoSHBODS, with 1st and 10th separated by only 19.8 points.

It’s been, as we thought fairly early on, a very even competition with no stand out teams.

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2023 - Round 27 Results - All of Your Favourites Again

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After scares of varying magnitudes, both favourites prevailed this week, knocking 5th and 7th out of the competition in Week 3 of the Finals, a fate that teams from 5th have only suffered three times, and teams from 7th only once, in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.

Those results cost MoSHPlay_Marg as share of the lead, and allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple to take joint leadership on 147 from 215 (68%).

The all-Tipster average for the round was 1.8 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 141 from 215 (66%).

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 26

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The Giants impressed both MoS Systems enough on Saturday night to have them both install GWS as their top-rated team. MoSSBODS also thought Melbourne did enough to earn 2nd place ahead of the Lions, while MoSHBODS was happy to leave the Lions marginally ahead of the Dees.

Collingwood, despite not playing, rose a spot on both Systems into 8th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS.

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2023 - Round 26 Results - None of Your Favourites

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Both underdogs won this week, knocking 3rd and 4th out of the competition in straight sets, a fate that teams from these positions have only suffered five times in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.

Those results meant that MoSHPlay_Marg’s lone contrarian tip was the only scorer for the round, and allowed it to move into joint 1st with MoSHBODS_Marg on 145 from 213 (68%).

The all-Tipster average for the round was 0.1 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 139.2 from 213 (65%).

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2023 - Round 26 : Everyone Agrees

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Recent Finals history shows that home teams in week 1 of the Finals tend to fare well, especially in the Qualifying Finals, and less so in the 1st Elimination Final.

That is largely reflected in the bookmaker prices this week, which see the Pies (and time of wagering) slight favourites, the Blues and Lions as moderate favourites, and the Saints as narrow underdogs.

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 25

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After the Elimination and Qualifying Finals, the MoS twins now agree that Brisbane Lions should be ranked 1st, and GWS 2nd. Thereafter, MoSSBODS has it as Adelaide, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Sydney, while MoSHBODS has it as Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney.

Both of them remain resolutely unimpressed with Collingwood, who MoSSBODS ranks 9th and MoSHBODS 7th.

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2023 - Round 25 Results - All Your Favourites

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As is often the case, favouritism weighs heavily in Finals, and so it was that Bookie Knows Best snared 4 from 4 this week, a feat matched only by RSMP twins. That allowed RSMP_Simple to join MoSHBODS_Marg at the top of the Leaderboard on 145 from 211 (69%). MoSHPlay_Marg now sits in 3rd place, one tip behind.

Those results left the minor premiers with the best week 1 record of 75%, just ahead of 2nd place’s 71% record. Teams from 5th position still have the worst record, although that is now nearing 60%.

Overall the teams finishing higher on the ladder than their opponents now have a 64 and 32 or 2-in-3 winning record.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 3 from 4, which took the all-season figure to 139.1 from 211 (66%).

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2023 - Team Ratings After Round 24

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We finish the home-and-away season with MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing on the Top 6 teams, but with the Top 4 in very different orders.

  • Adelaide, with only a relatively modest +1 Scoring Shot increase in its Combined Rating, moved back into top spot on MoSSBODS. They also moved up on MoSHBODS, but only into 4th.

  • Brisbane Lions gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 2nd on MoSSBODS and 3rd on MoSHBODS

  • Melbourne also gained Rating on both Systems to finish in 3rd on MoSSBODS and 2nd on MoSHBODS

  • GWS also gained Rating on both Systems, but in particular on MoSHBODS, to finish in 4th on MoSSBODS and 1st on MoSHBODS

  • Port Adelaide lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 5th on both Systems

  • Carlton lost Rating on both Systems to finish in 6th on both Systems

Both of those 1st place rankings seem a little curious, but the underlying story is, I think, that there are no standout teams this season, so a week or two of unexpectedly strong performances can catapult a team well up the rankings. To illustrate that point, note that the gap between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSSBODS is only 1.7 Scoring Shots (or about 6 points at average conversion rates), and between Adelaide and Carlton on MoSHBODS is only 5.1 points.

By way of comparison, the gaps between 1st and 6th at the end of the 2022 home and away season were 6.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 25.1 points on MoSHBODS, which are about 4 to 5 times the size.

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2023 - Round 24 Results - That'll Do

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If ever there was a week to take notice of each team’s ladder position, this was it, as just 4 of the 9 early-week favourites were successful, but 7 of the 9 teams higher on the competition ladder took the four points.

At the top of the Leaderboard, however, MoSHBODS_Marg managed 4 from 9 to now lead MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple by two tips.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.6 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 136.1 from 207 (66%).

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2023 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE 5:30PM SUNDAY

Blues by 1 point, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

Swans by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 12PM SUNDAY

Power by 26 points, according to MoSHPlay


UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

It’s the Dogs by 7 points, according to MoSHPlay

UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 24 points

UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Hawks by 11 and Gold Coast by 29 for the Super Saturday fixtures

UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 27 points

UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY

Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts about the final home and away round

2023 - Round 24 : Final Before Finals

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Seven Round 24 contests involve teams that are separated by no more than 4 spots on the competion ladder and the other two contests involve teams that are separated by nine spots on the competition ladder. We have:

  • Two games where the teams are separated by two ladder positions and where the lines are 12.5 and 13.5 points

  • Three games where the teams are separated by three ladder positions and where the lines range between 1.5 and 15.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by four ladder positions and where the lines are 30.5 and 34.5 points

  • Two games where the teams are separated by nine ladder positions and where the lines are 31.5 and 40.5 points

On average, the opposing teams are separated by 4.3 ladder spots this week, and the correlation between expected bookmaker margin and ladder position difference is +0.9.

The relatively small average ladder gap between teams has not translated into generally lower handicaps this week, the overall average coming in at 21.5 points per game, which is up by about 2 points on the Round 23 average. It leaves the all-Season average at its final value of 18.4 points per game, which is the highest average since 2018.

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