2023 - Round 28 : MoS Stays Bold
/It’s 1st v 2nd in the Grand Final, a matchup that has only occurred 7 times since 2000, and that hasn’t been a happy pairing for Minor Premiers who’ve won only 2 of those 7.
But this year is this year and has no obligation to follow trend, and the bookmakers have the Pies as about 5-point favourites.
The MoS twins - and MoSSBODS in particular this time - have somewhat different views, as we’ll see when we review this weeks’ tips …
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
There’s a lone contrarian head-to-head tip again this week, and it belongs to MoSSBODS, who remains resolutely a Pies non-fan.
With MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple both tipping the favourites, they are assured of at least a share of 1st place on the final Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, and can only be joined by MoSHPlay_Marg should it tip Brisbane Lions and the Lions prevail.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve a forecast range of only 6 points if we ignore MoSSBODS_Marg, but 15 points if we include it. MoSHPlay_Marg is guaranteed 1st on the Margin Predictor Leaderboard, MoSHBODS_Marg is guaranteed 5th, and MoSSBODS_Marg will finish either 7th or 8th.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, similarly, move from a range of 2% points to 16% points when you include MoSSBODS_Prob. Nonetheless, regardless of the outcome MoSHPlay_Prob will finish 1st, MoSSBODS_Prob 2nd, and MoSHBODS_Prob last on the Head-to-Head Probability Estimators Leaderboard.
WAGERS
MoSSBODS relative disdain for the Pies has led to a 1.5% line bet on Brisbane Lions +4.5
If this is a collect, the Combined Portfolio will rise by 65% x 1.5% x 0.9 = +0.9c.
If, instead the bet is not a collect, the Combined Portfolio will fall by 65% x 1.5% = 1c.
The Combined Portfolio will, therefore, finish in green ink for the 5th successive year, and for the 7th time in 8 years.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
