2022 - Round 27 : A House Divided

/

The final week of the Finals sees Geelong, the team from 1st on the ladder, meet Sydney from 3rd, a situation that has occurred five times previously since 2000, as you can see from the table at right.

Those contests have ended favourably for the Minor Premiers on three of those five occasions.

Across all Grand Finals during this period, however, teams in 3rd have a superior record, albeit from fewer appearances, and join teams from 2nd and teams from 7th as the only set of teams with a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 24

/

There was movement towards the top of the two Rating Systems this week with Sydney leap frogging Melbourne into 2nd on both. Further down there were four more moves on MoSSBODS, the largest Fremantle’s 4-spot drop into 10th, and four more on MoSHBODS as well, the largest there being Collingwood’s 3-spot climb to 7th.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

Read More

2022 - Round 24 Results - Extraordinary

/

In a remarkable round of football, two favourites won this week, but the level of contrarianism meant that the all-Tipster average came in at 2.7 from 4, including 3s for all Tipsters except Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

That left MoSHBODS_Marg in outright 1st position, now on 151.5 from 202 (75%), and still one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who also scored 3. Bookie Knows Best is now in joint 3rd, tied with MoSHPlay_Marg on 143.5.

Read More

2022 - Round 24 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHSPlay finishes at Dockers by 18 points.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

MoSHSPlay finishes at Cats by 31 points.

UPDATE 7:15PM FRIDAY

Dees by 12 is MoSHSPlay’s final bid.


UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is more bullish on the Cats and the Dockers than is MoSHBODS, but less bullish on the Dees.

UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY

It’s the Lions by just 1 point, according to MoSHPlay.

2022 - Round 24 : Home Ground Advantage

/

As the table at right shows, teams playing at home in the first week of the Finals tend to do fairly well, least of all for teams finishing 5th, and most of all for teams finishing 1st and 2nd.

That hasn’t stopped the bookmakers from making the 7th-placed Richmond favourites playing away to the 6th-placed Brisbane Lions, or from making the other home teams favourites by only two-and-a-half to three goals.

Read More

2022 - Team Ratings After Round 23

/

There was quite a bit of movement on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, though Geelong did enough to retain top spot on both Rating Systems. Just below them, Melbourne grabbed 2nd from Sydney on both Systems as the latter didn’t do enough against the Saints to impress them.

In total, there were 12 moves on MoSSBODS and 10 on MoSHBODS, leaving the two Systems disagreeing only about the 6th and 7th, and 15th and 16th spots.

Ten teams are rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and the same number are rated as above-average on MoSHBODS.

Read More

2022 - Round 23 Results - Quite the Round

/

All nine winners this week sat higher on the competition ladder than their opponents at the start of the round, which was, of course, excellent news for Consult The Ladder.

Eight of them were also early-week favourites, though, so scores were generally high for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside.

MoSHBODS_Marg managed 8 from 9, which allowed it to assume outright 1st position again, now on 148.5 from 198 (75%), and one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who scored only 7 from 9. Bookie Knows Best remains in outright 3rd on 141.5 from 198 (72%), one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.

Read More

2022 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay

/

UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

MoSHPlay has switched to Pies by 1 point.

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

Dogs by 14 points, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has landed on Tigers by 11 points, and Power by 28.

UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY

It’s the Cats by 95 points (sic), according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE 1:30PM SATURDAY

MoSHPlay has it as Giants and Suns both by 13 points.


UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY

MoSHPlay has it now as Lions by 8 points.

UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY

MoSHPlay is currently the extreme Margin Predictor in six games, including a very brave 92-point forecast for the Cats’ winning margin.